July 19, 2020
It will be like playing in a post
season atmosphere from the start. The young White Sox only have three players
with this experience. Nevertheless, the talent is good enough for them to
compete. What they need is a good start, to instill some confidence. For the
first time in years, the Sox should play meaningful games in September.
The best news in recent days was
Yoan Moncada returning after testing positive for the coronavirus.He was asymptomatic
so he shouldn’t miss a lot of time. Although overshadowed by the major league
batting leader, shortstop Tim Anderson, and A.L. RBI leader, first baseman Jose
Abreu, he is probably their best offensive player. Moncada finished third in
the batting title race and led the Sox in on-base and slugging percentage.
Eloy Jimenez was on fire when the
season ended and is poised for an MVP type season. Another player to watch is five-tool
rookie centerfielder Luis Robert. The Sox also added Edwin Encarnacion to DH and
catcher Yasmani Grandal. He is not only
good offensively, but will help young pitchers with his framing of pitches and
defense. The Sox should have plenty of offensive
firepower, even more when Moncada returns.
The Sox may win 35 games however,
with tough competition not make it to the post season. But this will be a great
springboard for 2021.
In contrast to the White Sox, the
Cubs have an experienced core group when it comes to playing important games August
and September. This might be the last hurrah for this group. With many question
marks, the one thing the Cubs need is to avoid injuries. In past years injuries to
Kris Bryant and Javier Baez have debilitated this team.
One of the first moves Manager
David Ross did was inserting Kris Bryant to lead off. Bryant has a great on
base percentage and should provide many RBI opportunities for Anthony Rizzo and
Baez. With the designated hitter and not the pitcher hitting ahead of him,
Bryant should have better success driving in runs. The problem I have with Ross
is he wants to go righty followed by lefty and has Jason Heyward hitting
fourth. Heyward has never hit like the Cubs expected when they signed him to a
long term contract. With .264 batting average he could be a rally killer. However,
he doesn’t have many other options if he wants to construct his batting order
this way.
In Bryant and Baez, the Cubs have
one of the best left sides of the infield in the game. Anthony Rizzo is in the
upper echelon of first basemen. They
seem to be leaning toward Jason Kipnis at second base. In his past three years
his averages have been .232, .230 and.245. The Cubs would be better served with
Nico Hoerner or David Bote.
Even with Heyward batting fourth,
the top of the line-up is loaded and will produce a lot of runs. Kyle Schwarber
keeps getting better and better. In 2017 his average was .211. Last year it was up to .250. He had his best home
run output with 38. If he continues to improve, he could be very dangerous. Right
now he would probably be a better option at number four in the line-up. His defense
has also improved. However, it seems he will mostly be the designated hitter.
If so the outfield leaves a lot to be desired. According to my Cub consultant, Ian Happ will
be in left field. He has to hit better than .264. He hit 24 homers in 2017.
Last year he hit only 11. In centerfield you have Albert Almora Jr. His average
in 2017 was .298. In 2018 it dipped to .286. Last year was a disaster at .236
with no power. With Heyward in right, the outfield defense is fine but you need
more offensive production. I know hindsight is 20/20, but if you knew the
National League was going to adopt the designated hitter, resigning Nick
Castellanos would have been a good idea.
In past years the strength of
this team was the pitching. They do have
one of the best pitchers in Yu Darvish. He is a joy to watch as batters flail
at his assortment of pitches. If he opts out, the Cubs are in deep doo-doo. Opening
day starter, Kyle Hendricks, has been pretty good since being acquired in 2015.
I don’t think he is an elite pitcher. Jon Lester over the course of a full
season is just mediocre, as attested to his 13 wins and 4.48 ERA. The hope for
the Cubs is that in a short season he can amp it up and give them quality starts.
With Jose Quintana sidelined the rest of the rotation is a crapshoot. Tyler
Chatwood, who has never lived up to expectations is your number 4 starter.
Because he is out of options, Alec Mills is your number five. From what I know
he doesn’t get me excited. Eventually you may see Cub Colin Rea or Adbert Alzolay
crack the rotation.
What may hinder the Cubs most is a suspect
bullpen. The primary set-up men are Kyle Ryan and Rowan Wick. Neither has
pitched a full major league season. To assist these two, the Cubs acquired
former Milwaukee reliever Jeremy Jeffress who will try to bounce back from a
5.02 ERA. Even if the set-up men do their jobs, the closer remains Craig
Kimbrel who once was an elite closer. Kimbrel has fallen on hard times in the
past couple of years. There must have been a reason he was available until June
when the Cubs were desperate for a closer. He saved thirteen games but will be remembered
for blown saves. In a pivotal series in the second to last weekend, he took two
loses to the Cardinals practically ending any Cubs hopes for post season play.
I don’t think I can live with a closer who comes in for one inning and has 6.58
ERA. He also gave up 9 homers in 20 innings.
Since the Dodgers are going to
run away with their division, the wild card will come from the other two. If
the Cubs can grind their way to 32 wins they should be a wild card.
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