What Were the Odds the Bears Would Beat Las Vegas Raiders

 

October 11, 2021

Not many people predicted the Bears would beat the Las Vegas Raiders, including yours truly. The Raiders opened the scoring with field goal. Thanks in part to Raider penalties, the Bears scored 14 unanswered points and were never really challenged in a 20-9 upset victory. This game showed that there is a glimmer of hope. If Bears QB Justin Fields continues to grow, I may have to revise my win total projection.

The defense this for the most part has been outstanding.  New Defensive Coordinator Sean Desai has been a tremendous upgrade over Chuck Pagano. Once again the Bears defense could be their calling card.  The Raiders offense was flying high in its previous four games. Raiders QB Derek Carr was averaging 329 passing yards per game. The Bears held him to 205 yards and an interception. The Bears continue to thwart offensives on fourth downs.  Khalil Mack is having his best season since 2018.  After the Raiders scored their only touchdown, it was his sack on Carr that prevented a two point conversion that would have cut the lead to a field goal.

The offense is not exactly a juggernaut, but there are a lot of positives. Without running back David Montgomery the Bears still racked up 143 rushing yards. Damien Williams had 64 yards on 16 carries. What was surprising is sixth round draft pick Khalil Herbert, had 75 yards on 18 carries. The Bears were opportunists taking advantage of Raider penalties. The Bears had a first and goal at the ten yard line. Th. Early in the first touchdown drive Raider’s Yannick Ngakoue’s roughing the passer gave the Bears a first down on what would have been a third and 18 The Bears had a first and goal from the 10 yard line. This usually leads to a Bears field goal. After two penalties it was first and goal from the two yard line. Fields fired his first career touchdown pass to tight end Jesper Horsted, giving the Bears the lead. Later in the first Fields left the game with an injury. After missing three plays he completed a 12 yard pass on third and 7 to wide receiver Allen Robinson. Damien Williams completed the drive with a 4 yard touchdown. After the lead had been cut to five, Field’s had his best sequence. He completed a 13 yard pass to Darnell Mooney to convert a third and 12. He the connected with tight end Cole Kmet for 11 yards leading to a Cairo Santos 46 yard field goal. Santos would later connect on another 46 yarder. He has now made 34 in a row. What may be most important is the Bears were turnover free.

What does all this mean?  The Bears defense will keep them in most games. They need an uptick in the offense to make them competitive against upper echelon teams. The schedule gets really tough with a game against Aaron Rodgers Packers followed by a road game against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Although
highly unlikely, winning either of these games would be huge.  

Baseball Playoffs

 

October 6, 2021

The White Sox coasted through the Central Division. Despite this being the weakest division in baseball, 93 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The Baseball Prospectus (BP) had them winning 83 games. The Sox closed the season on a high note, winning 6 of their last seven games.  If healthy, Luis Robert will become one of the best all-around players in the game.

The Sox will face off in Houston against the Astros, who won their division by a comfortable margin. Last time the Sox were in Houston they lost 4 straight. However the Sox were without Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada was just coming off the IL. The rest of the team was in a funk that they were not in as this season ended, especially Yasmani Grandal. I think this series will be decided by who shows more power.

The Tampa Bay Rays won their division by 8 games. The BP had them winning 86 games. They finished with 100. The real excitement was going into the last day; four teams had a shot to make the playoffs. The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays were sent home packing setting up a classic, the Boston Red Sox vs. the New York Yankees. The winner will face Tampa in a best of seven series.

In the National League, Atlanta started out slow but came on to win the division. The competition faded as the season progressed. They will face the Milwaukee Brewers, who got really hot midseason and were never really challenged for the Central Division. I think Milwaukee’s pitching will get them to the next round in the post season. The Cardinals rode a 17 game winning streak to claim a wild card spot. They will have a rough go as they face either the Dodgers or Giants.

The two best teams in the National League are in the West Division. Everyone knew the Dodgers would be good. They are loaded with talent and won 106 games. The biggest surprise of the season were the  San Francisco Giants who edged out the Dodgers with 107 wins. BP had them winning 77 games. A Giants-Dodger series renews an old rivalry and could be lots of fun. The biggest disappointment were the San Diego Padres. The Padres spent a lot of money acquiring players to challenge the Dodgers. Yu Darvish was the big prize in the off-season. However, he had the worst season of his career. He went 8-11 with a  4.22 era. Injuries to pitchers made them so desperate that they picked up Jake Arrieta who, by now, is washed up. They won 79 games, BP had the Padres winning 96.

I reference the Baseball Prospectus because they have all the formulas for predicting win totals. Their projected wins for most teams was way out of whack. As a White Sox fan, I was dismayed the Sox total was 83.  In the future I will disregard the predicted wins.

Nagyless Bears Beat Detroit

 

October 4, 2021

 

Believe it or not, the Bears played a team that is lousier than they are. After building a 21 point lead, the Bears coasted to a 24-14 victory over the woebegone Detroit Lions. However, the Bears may not have won without help from the Lions. The Lions failed to score on three straight chances inside the Bears 10 yard line. On the first one, the Lions messed up a snap and the Bears recovered a fumble. The second stop came after first and goal from the five when Alec Ogletree batted down a pass from Lions QB Jared Goff. Next with third and goal from the 3 yard line, Robert Quinn knocked the ball out of Goff’s hands. In the closing minutes the Lions needed a field goal and a touchdown to tie the game. Instead of kicking a short field goal Goff threw an incomplete pass on fourth and one.

 

I had a feeling the offense would have a good day when I saw Coach Matt Nagy without his billboard of plays. The plays were being called by offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. It must have been jarring for Nagy to see the running game dominating the play calling. Nagy would never run the ball two times for every pass. The Bears led by David Montgomery’s 106 yards rushed for 188 yards. Damien Williams had 55 yards on eight carries. It’s too bad that both exited the game with injuries.

 

Justin Fields showed why he may become a great QB. Lazor added two tight ends to protect the franchise QB. Fields responded, completing 11 of 17 passes for 209 yards. Darnell Mooney made a one handed grab for Fields’ first completion. Showing off his great arm strength, Fields consistently hit receivers downfield. What also must been jarring to Nagy, is the Bears averaged 19 yards per completion. Take this all with a grain of salt as the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

 

The Bears defense was giving up chunks of yardage to the Lions on the ground and in the air. However, the defense stiffened up when they needed to. Game ball goes to Linebacker Robert Quinn who is having a really good bounce back season. He came up with a two yard tackle for a loss in the second goal line stand and knocked the ball out Goff’s hands in the third. Eddie Goldman returned to the line-up to complete their three down linemen. Things might have looked better had Akiem Hicks not gotten hurt on the first play. Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack also played well.

 

Matt Nagy is always quick to divert attention away from his disastrous coaching. He also seems to like to take credit when it is not due. After praising Lazor, Nagy said, “Ultimately it goes through me. Everything we do, regardless of who’s calling this or who’s calling that, it goes through me.” It wouldn’t surprise me if he starts Andy Dalton start next week. But Fields needs a chance to build on this performance. 

 

Things get much harder with a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders. After that it’s the Green Bay Packers, who are the cream of the crop in the division.  Until number 12 retires or goes to another team, no one else wins this division.

Nagy's the Probllem

 

September 27, 2021

The Cleveland Browns are one of the better teams in the NFL. They have a very potent offense and pretty good defense. Then again, every defense looks good facing the Bears. I was excited to see rookie Justin Fields make his first start at quarterback. However, thanks to his coach, the offense showed no life. The Bears defense kept them in the game trailing only 10-3 at halftime.  Ultimately, the Browns got their act together outscoring the Bears 16-3 cruising to an easy 26-6 victory.

The Bears have reached a historic all-time low. While Nagy’s offense rarely scores twenty points, yesterday they managed only two measly field goals. After the game Nagy said he will watch the tape and see what went wrong and why. Echoing the sentiments of Dave Kaplan and crew on the post-game show, if you want to know why things went bad, look in the mirror. The Browns turned the ball over on downs when Browns QB Baker Mayfield was sacked. On the Bears first play David Montgomery ran for 16 yards, setting up a Bear field goal. The Bears would run 43 more plays for a total of 31 yards.

Nagy’s play calling didn’t give Fields a chance to succeed. There were no roll-outs, bootlegs or play action. He never called a screen pass, which if executed properly may have slowed the Browns pass rush. Instead he tried to make Fields execute his offense which hasn’t worked since he got here. It pisses me off that the Bears brought him back after two eight win seasons.

With Fields in the pocket, the Browns had nine sacks. Thirty-nine year old Jason Peters looked like an old man. He was being beaten at the line of scrimmage, allowing Miles Garrett to set a Browns record with 4 ½ sacks. Germain Ifedi was just as bad. Nagy did not make any adjustments. It’s imperative you protect your franchise QB. God forbid Nagy would change his offense to provide Fields some protection. Fields was getting creamed and Nagy did nothing about it.

Even though they might be the worst tackling team, I am going to cut the defense some slack. They played a very good first half. They stopped a very good team from running the ball. They also pressured Mayfield.  Robert Quinn, who is having a bounce back season had two sacks. Khalil Mack, battling injuries, also had two sacks. They stopped the Browns on two fourth down and short yardage situations with sacks. The problem is, with the offense continually going three and out, the defense was on the field for 40 minutes.

The biggest problem with the Bears is Matt Nagy.  He was brought in to rejuvenate the offense and has failed miserably. They average 18 points per game. He failed in developing Mitch Trubisky. Therefore, I am worried he will ruin Fields. I know it is wishful thinking, but Nagy has to be let go before the season is totally lost. Fields will never be the QB they envisioned as long as Nagy is his coach.

Bears Win But Don't Get Too Excited

 

September 20, 2021

Things got a little scary at the end as the Bears held on to edge the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17. The Bears didn’t win this game as much as the Bengals lost it.  However, don’t get too excited. This is one the games the Bears were supposed to win as the Bengals are one of the few teams worse than they are.

The defense was the primary reason for the Bears victory. It seemed they turned back the clock to 2018 forcing four Bengal turnovers. The first was a fumble forced by Eddie Jackson, which Tashaun Gipson recovered. Bengals QB Joe Burrows , had thrown 199 passes without an interception when he was picked off by Bears linebacker Roquan Smith who ran it in for a touchdown. Smith who is one of the best linebackers in the NFL also had one the Bears four sacks. On his next pass Burrows was intercepted by second year cornerback
Jaylon Johnson, one of GM Ryan Pace’s better draft picks. On the next series Alec Ogeltree replacing Eddie Goldman at nose tackle, hit Burrows forcing another interception by backup defensive lineman Angelo Blackson. Khalil Mack also had a strong and got his first sack of the year. Lo and behold, Robert Quinn had a sack.

Bears starting QB Andy Dalton, was on fire to start the game. He completed 6 of 7 passes on a 75 yard touchdown drive, capped by a TD pass to Allen Robinson.  He also had a couple of nice runs. That was about it for offensive guru Matt Nagy’s offense. Dalton looked good on his second drive before injuring himself running out of bounds.

Justin Fields took over and had some rookie struggles that can easily be corrected. He had two false start penalties, recovered his own fumble and threw a costly interception leading to a Cincinnati touchdown.. He showed a strong arm and should have had a touchdown reception that Robinson uncharacteristically dropped in the end zone. The Bear defense was setting up the offense in good position. However, when they got close to the end zone they had to settle for field goals. There are two areas that cause major headaches. Offensive genius Nagy can’t get creative enough to get them into the end zone. He doesn’t even consider a run pass option. Once again the Bears had a third and two and couldn’t get a first down, running he ball twice.

Back to Fields. He did his part to save the day. With a little over two minutes to go the Bears faced a third down and nine. Fields broke two tackles and got a first down.  I don’t know if Fields starts next week but it his time will come sooner rather than later.  With the weak offensive line Nagy will need to call roll-out pass options to avid the rush and keep his quarterbacks healthy.   

Not Ready For Prime Time

 

September 13, 2021

The Chicago Bears made it close, trailing only 13-7 at halftime. The L.A. Rams outscored the Bears 21-7 in the second half and routed the Bears 34-14. I can’t understand why NBC would choose to televise a game between a Super Bowl contender and a really bad Bears team. The Bears’ flaws I envisioned were in full bloom Sunday night.

I’m not used to a Bears defense surrendering 34 points. With no pressure whatsoever, Rams QB Matt Stafford carved up the Bear defense. He completed 20 of 26 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had an incredible 123 passer rating. The third offensive play by the Rams was a harbinger of things to come. Stafford connected on a 67 yard touchdown to Van Jefferson. Jefferson caught the ball at the 12 yard line. Safeties Tashaun Gipson and Eddie Jackson failed to touch him down and Jefferson got up and ran into the end zone. Stafford then picked apart the Bears secondary, leading to two field goals, putting them ahead 13-0. Among the three Ram touchdowns in the second half was a 56 yard bomb to Cooper Kupp. Eddie Jackson was in a different time zone than the wide open Kupp.  The Bears overvalued Jackson and rewarded him with a 5 year, multi-million dollar deal. Just think, if the Bears offered less and dumped TE Jimmy Graham’s $7 million dollar deal, they could have resigned All-Pro cornerback Kyle Fuller.

Once again offensive guru Matt Nagy’s offense failed to reach 20 points. Bears QB Andy Dalton completed 27 of 38 for 206 yards.  That averages to a paltry 7.5 yards per completion. The problem is not the quarterbacks, it's Nagy’s system. Running back David Montgomery had a great game gaining 108 yards. However, Nagy only ran him 16 times. His 6.75 yards average per carry were longer than most pass attempts. He also caught a pass out the backfield that gained 13 yards, yet Nagy didn’t call that play for the rest of the night. Rookie QB Justin Fields came in and completed a nine yard pass, something Dalton failed to do. Fields also scored a touchdown. No matter, Dalton probably starts next week.

Some of Nagy’s decisions were mind numbing. The Bears have trouble on fourth down when needing only one yard. Nagy inexplicably went twice on fourth and six, turning the ball over on both occasions. The one time he punted, the Rams were buried inside their ten yard line which led to a Bear touchdown. What’s amazing, the Bears could have cut the lead to ten with a field goal. Instead, Nagy went for a first down on fourth needing 15 yards. This blew up as well. Wait there’s more! With the Bears trailing, they needed the ball. It seemed as if the Rams were going to settle for a field goal. However, Nagy accepts a 10 yard penalty replaying third down, wasting valuable time. On third and 17, the Rams gain a first down. With 7 minutes to go and trailing by 20 points Nagy sends Dalton on the field. This would been an excellent time to put Fields in.

The offense isn’t going to get better with Dalton. Fields should start now. He can be real good especially if he changes Nagy’s play call at the line. The defense is no longer the Bears calling card. They will get beat up by good offensive teams, like next week’s Cincinnati Bengals.

Bear Down and Cover Your Eyes

 

September 6, 2021

L

Last year the Bears backed into the playoffs finishing at 8-8. They lost 21-9 scoring their lone touchdown on the last play of the game.

The asinine decision to bring Matt Nagy back as coach boggles the mind. He was hired to rejuvenate the offense and develop Mitch Trubisky. He has failed miserably on both accounts. He is hung up thinking he is a genius and that his offensive schemes are great. The problem is the Bears don’t score enough points to win. It is time for him install an offense that the players can execute instead of them “adjusting” to his system. He is also not a good game coach, calling plays that make you want to pull your hair out.  I’m just wondering how many times after a loss he will tell the media that “They had a great week of practice.”

With Trubisky gone, Nick Foles was the only quarterback on the roster. Once Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts, the Bears went into fantasy land. The Bears thought they had a shot at Houston’s DeShaun Watson or Seattle’s Russell Wilson. Watson was accused of alleged sexual abuse and Wilson wasn’t on the trading block. In desperation, the Bears acquired Andy Dalton. This would have excited me five years ago, his last winning season. The Bears also drafted a possible franchise QB, Justin Fields who will sit and watch Dalton. I wonder how long it will take Nagy to realize Fields is a better option.

The Bears have one of the best wide receivers, Allen Robinson, as well as Darnell Mooney, who had an outstanding rookie season. They have no other threats. Anthony Miller is gone. Nagy and GM Ryan Pace said he didn’t develop the way they were expecting. This would been hard to do from the bench and not calling plays for him. Tight End Cole Kmet had a nice rookie season and should improve. Nagy has to know he should get the majority of playing time over Jimmy Graham. David Montgomery had 1070 yards rushing which averages out to just under 67 yards per game. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry, which is pretty good. The problem is that Nagy can’t install a running game in his pass happy offense. Montgomery should be getting more touches. He is also great at catching the ball out of the backfield. Nagy continues to make the mistake on running Montgomery into the line in short yardage situations. 

Vic Fangio protégé Sean Desai, replaces the woeful Chuck Pagano as Defensive Coordinator. While the Bears’ calling card has always been their defense, there a myriad of question marks to see if that will still be the case. The front three has Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols on the ends. The hope is that nose tackle Eddie Goldman can return to the impact player he was in 2019. Outside linebacker Khalil Mack is still a dominant player and I don’t know if there is a better inside linebacker than Roquan Smith. The questions remain on the other side. Nine year veteran Alec Ogletree replaces the oft-injured Danny Trevathan and the Bears are hoping for a bounce back year for the underachieving Robert Quinn. Jaylon Johnson at cornerback, looked pretty good until he had a season ending injury. He is probably still learning. The other corner, a 2020 fifth round pick, Kindle Vildor has no experience. The Bears gave safety Eddie Jackson a contract extension for his “ball hawking” ability. Last year he had zero interceptions and no fumble recoveries. He is also a terrible tackler. The other safety is veteran Tashaun Gipson.

2019 sixth round pick, Duke Shelley, has the inside track to be the nickel back.

Kicker Cairo Santos may be this team’s MVP. The Bears have to settle for a lot of field goals. He has made people forget Robbie Gould converting on his last 27 kicks. Third string running back, Khalil Herbert will get a chance to replace Cordarrelle Patterson returning kickoffs.

The Bears will probably end up at best 9-8; not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to get a good draft choice. If you’re read this column, let me know what you think about what the Bears’ record will be, post your predictions below.