Not Ready For Prime Time

 

September 13, 2021

The Chicago Bears made it close, trailing only 13-7 at halftime. The L.A. Rams outscored the Bears 21-7 in the second half and routed the Bears 34-14. I can’t understand why NBC would choose to televise a game between a Super Bowl contender and a really bad Bears team. The Bears’ flaws I envisioned were in full bloom Sunday night.

I’m not used to a Bears defense surrendering 34 points. With no pressure whatsoever, Rams QB Matt Stafford carved up the Bear defense. He completed 20 of 26 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had an incredible 123 passer rating. The third offensive play by the Rams was a harbinger of things to come. Stafford connected on a 67 yard touchdown to Van Jefferson. Jefferson caught the ball at the 12 yard line. Safeties Tashaun Gipson and Eddie Jackson failed to touch him down and Jefferson got up and ran into the end zone. Stafford then picked apart the Bears secondary, leading to two field goals, putting them ahead 13-0. Among the three Ram touchdowns in the second half was a 56 yard bomb to Cooper Kupp. Eddie Jackson was in a different time zone than the wide open Kupp.  The Bears overvalued Jackson and rewarded him with a 5 year, multi-million dollar deal. Just think, if the Bears offered less and dumped TE Jimmy Graham’s $7 million dollar deal, they could have resigned All-Pro cornerback Kyle Fuller.

Once again offensive guru Matt Nagy’s offense failed to reach 20 points. Bears QB Andy Dalton completed 27 of 38 for 206 yards.  That averages to a paltry 7.5 yards per completion. The problem is not the quarterbacks, it's Nagy’s system. Running back David Montgomery had a great game gaining 108 yards. However, Nagy only ran him 16 times. His 6.75 yards average per carry were longer than most pass attempts. He also caught a pass out the backfield that gained 13 yards, yet Nagy didn’t call that play for the rest of the night. Rookie QB Justin Fields came in and completed a nine yard pass, something Dalton failed to do. Fields also scored a touchdown. No matter, Dalton probably starts next week.

Some of Nagy’s decisions were mind numbing. The Bears have trouble on fourth down when needing only one yard. Nagy inexplicably went twice on fourth and six, turning the ball over on both occasions. The one time he punted, the Rams were buried inside their ten yard line which led to a Bear touchdown. What’s amazing, the Bears could have cut the lead to ten with a field goal. Instead, Nagy went for a first down on fourth needing 15 yards. This blew up as well. Wait there’s more! With the Bears trailing, they needed the ball. It seemed as if the Rams were going to settle for a field goal. However, Nagy accepts a 10 yard penalty replaying third down, wasting valuable time. On third and 17, the Rams gain a first down. With 7 minutes to go and trailing by 20 points Nagy sends Dalton on the field. This would been an excellent time to put Fields in.

The offense isn’t going to get better with Dalton. Fields should start now. He can be real good especially if he changes Nagy’s play call at the line. The defense is no longer the Bears calling card. They will get beat up by good offensive teams, like next week’s Cincinnati Bengals.

Bear Down and Cover Your Eyes

 

September 6, 2021

L

Last year the Bears backed into the playoffs finishing at 8-8. They lost 21-9 scoring their lone touchdown on the last play of the game.

The asinine decision to bring Matt Nagy back as coach boggles the mind. He was hired to rejuvenate the offense and develop Mitch Trubisky. He has failed miserably on both accounts. He is hung up thinking he is a genius and that his offensive schemes are great. The problem is the Bears don’t score enough points to win. It is time for him install an offense that the players can execute instead of them “adjusting” to his system. He is also not a good game coach, calling plays that make you want to pull your hair out.  I’m just wondering how many times after a loss he will tell the media that “They had a great week of practice.”

With Trubisky gone, Nick Foles was the only quarterback on the roster. Once Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts, the Bears went into fantasy land. The Bears thought they had a shot at Houston’s DeShaun Watson or Seattle’s Russell Wilson. Watson was accused of alleged sexual abuse and Wilson wasn’t on the trading block. In desperation, the Bears acquired Andy Dalton. This would have excited me five years ago, his last winning season. The Bears also drafted a possible franchise QB, Justin Fields who will sit and watch Dalton. I wonder how long it will take Nagy to realize Fields is a better option.

The Bears have one of the best wide receivers, Allen Robinson, as well as Darnell Mooney, who had an outstanding rookie season. They have no other threats. Anthony Miller is gone. Nagy and GM Ryan Pace said he didn’t develop the way they were expecting. This would been hard to do from the bench and not calling plays for him. Tight End Cole Kmet had a nice rookie season and should improve. Nagy has to know he should get the majority of playing time over Jimmy Graham. David Montgomery had 1070 yards rushing which averages out to just under 67 yards per game. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry, which is pretty good. The problem is that Nagy can’t install a running game in his pass happy offense. Montgomery should be getting more touches. He is also great at catching the ball out of the backfield. Nagy continues to make the mistake on running Montgomery into the line in short yardage situations. 

Vic Fangio protégé Sean Desai, replaces the woeful Chuck Pagano as Defensive Coordinator. While the Bears’ calling card has always been their defense, there a myriad of question marks to see if that will still be the case. The front three has Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols on the ends. The hope is that nose tackle Eddie Goldman can return to the impact player he was in 2019. Outside linebacker Khalil Mack is still a dominant player and I don’t know if there is a better inside linebacker than Roquan Smith. The questions remain on the other side. Nine year veteran Alec Ogletree replaces the oft-injured Danny Trevathan and the Bears are hoping for a bounce back year for the underachieving Robert Quinn. Jaylon Johnson at cornerback, looked pretty good until he had a season ending injury. He is probably still learning. The other corner, a 2020 fifth round pick, Kindle Vildor has no experience. The Bears gave safety Eddie Jackson a contract extension for his “ball hawking” ability. Last year he had zero interceptions and no fumble recoveries. He is also a terrible tackler. The other safety is veteran Tashaun Gipson.

2019 sixth round pick, Duke Shelley, has the inside track to be the nickel back.

Kicker Cairo Santos may be this team’s MVP. The Bears have to settle for a lot of field goals. He has made people forget Robbie Gould converting on his last 27 kicks. Third string running back, Khalil Herbert will get a chance to replace Cordarrelle Patterson returning kickoffs.

The Bears will probably end up at best 9-8; not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to get a good draft choice. If you’re read this column, let me know what you think about what the Bears’ record will be, post your predictions below.

It's the Best of Times and the Worst of Times

 

August 30 2021

With one month left in the regular season, the White Sox (76-56) still have a stranglehold on the Central Division. They lead the Indians by 10 games.  Now is the time to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. They also still have chance to catch Houston for home field advantage.

The knock on the Sox is they can’t beat good teams. They just finished a stretch of 14 games against teams with winning records and went 7-7. Four of the losses were games when Tim Anderson was not in the line-up. Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are back and are tearing the cover off the ball. Yasmani Grandal came back and continued the hot streak he was on before he went on the IL. These additions have also made Jose Abreu better. He got extremely hot in August. He has 27 homers and once again leads the majors with 101 RBI. The Sox now have one of the best offenses in the game. Also on a positive note, Dylan Cease, is learning how to pitch and should only get better.

The moves at the trading deadline are a mixed bag. Ryan Tepera was a good pick up. He throws strikes and has an unhittable slider, especially against right handed batters. New second baseman, Caesar Hernandez has won a gold glove. The problem is he is a weak link in the line-up. He has developed a lot of power with over 20 homers. This coincides with striking out, which he is doing at an alarming rate. Craig Kimbrel was acquired to solidify the bullpen, which is a key to post season success. He has been a mitigating disaster. Dallas Keuchel has also been awful. He has gone from being a number two starter to number five. I am sure he will get more starts to try to turn things around but I feel this is highly unlikely. As of now, Reynaldo Lopez is a better option. Tony LaRussa will probably make the wrong move, letting Keuchel start.

If you are tuning into the Cubs (57-75) to see if they win or lose, you are watching for the wrong reason.   Right now the focus should be on who you want to see on next year’s team. I would think the Cubs will have some September call ups. However, the Cubs farm system ranks in the lower half of baseball and I don’t hear any names of players in the system.

Looking ahead, there are a few things we know. Willson Contreras will be catching. Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal will be at shortstop and second base. Due to an albatross contract, Jason Hayward will be in right field. I think you can pencil in Patrick Wisdom at third. He has massive power and should be able to hit 40 homers per year. Right now he has 25 in 254 at bats but also has 111 strikeouts. Since he is only a rookie, maybe he can improve in this area. Wisdom is also exceptionally good defensively. Frank Schwindel at first base is hitting .344, though he has little power, unlike most first basemen. You might have Rafael Ortega in center as he has shown flashes of what he can do. Let there be no mistake, these are all stop gap moves. Schwindel is 29 years old and Wisdom and Ortega are 30 years old.

It’s remarkable that Kyle Hendricks is 14-6 for a team 18 games under .500. He is most likely coming back. It may behoove the Cubs to explore a trade in the off season. You can get some really good prospects for Hendricks. Starters Adbert Alzolay. Jason Steele and Keegan Thompson all need some seasoning. Zach Davies and Alec Mills are other options to round out the rotation.

To placate fans, Jed Hoyer refuses to admit this a rebuild. They do have the money to sign free agents, but next year is not the time. There are too many holes to fill. Therefore, a couple of free agents aren’t going to make you a contender. Judging by recent moves, I don’t think the Cubs will jump into the free agent market this year. Remember, patience is a virtue.

As One Era comes to the End Another One is Beginning

 

August 2, 2021

The baseball world exploded with a flurry of trades before the deadline. Many teams selling impact players to teams pushing to make the playoffs. The Dodgers acquired Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer and all-star shortstop Trae Turner. The Giants countered by signing Kris Bryant. Nelson Cruz is now a Tampa Bay Ray, stud pitcher Jose Berrios is a Blue Jay and the Red Sox traded for slugger Kyle Schwarber. Not to be outdone, the Yankees signed sluggers Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to take aim at the short right field bleachers at Yankee Stadium. The Cubs were very busy with a plethora of moves, including two trades with the cross-town White Sox.

The White Sox (62-44) have been playing lousy baseball. The Cleveland Indians have played just as bad.  By winning two of three over the Indians the Sox have opened a huge 9 game lead. It would take a slump of epic proportions for the Sox not to win the division.

The Sox positioned themselves for the post season trading for an elite closer former Cub, Craig Kimbrel. This allows them to use the formula of the 2015 world champion Kansa City Royals. The Royals had Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland closing out games. The Sox have a resurgent Aaron Bummer, Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks. In recent years teams that win have great bullpens. The Sox have the best as of right now.

The hitting has to improve. Hopefully it won’t take long for Eloy Jimenez to get in a groove. The same thing goes for Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal when they return.  They need Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu to get going. It is imperative for the Sox to win enough games to get home field advantage in the playoffs. The Sox have been struggling on the road but have a major league best record at home.

The Sox also need to shore their defense. The outfield will get much better when Robert returns. It wouldn’t hurt to give Adam Engel the majority of playing time in right. They have traded for gold glove second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Anderson has improved at shortstop. Yoan Moncada after a bad series in Houston, has been very good at third. They also have to overcome the disastrous managing job by Tony LaRussa.

The woes continue for the Cubs (51-56) as they have dropped to fourth place. What was projected when the season began came to fruition before the trading deadline. While the Sox window will be open for years, it’s the end of an era for the Cubs.

Let’s start with Kimbrel trade. He was not going to be a free- agent at the end of the year however, they wanted to dump his $16 million contract. The club will have a loss of revenue. The seats are sold but will fans show up?  At least the Cubs got something in return. Codi Heuer has terrific stuff and can become a late inning guy if not a closer. Cub fans are going to love second baseman Nick Madrigal. He and Nico Hoerner can be a real good DP combo for years.

Before you mourn for the loss of the three core players from the 2016 world champs, consider this team wasn't going to win with them. So far this season they have all underachieved leaving Jed Hoyer to receive little in return. Anthony Rizzo was dealt to the Yankees. The Cubs received right hander Alexander Vizcaino and minor league outfielder Kevin Alcantara. The only thing positive is the Yankees are pretty good at selecting prospects. Javier Baez and Trevor Williams were traded to the Mets for outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong who may be ready soon. Kris Bryant was traded to San Francisco for prospects right-hander Caleb Kilian and outfielder Alexander Canario.

Most of these prospects won’t be ready for a while and the Cubs farm system is not very good. The Cubs say they are retooling, not rebuilding. Who are they retooling around? Some people tell me they have freed up money and could sign some free agents and contend. As you should know by now, this not their MO.  In my opinion they should shop Kyle Hendricks in the off-season. He can command players who can help sooner rather than later. It’s going a long time before they will be contenders.

White Sox and Cubs Heading in Different Directions

 

July 12, 2021

 

Starting in the month of June, the White Sox (54-35) were not playing particularly well.  However, winning their last 5 games, the Sox remain on top in the Central Division with the best record in the American League. The lead has swelled to 8 games partially due to second place Cleveland having their 3 top pitchers on the IL and the Minnesota Twins. The lead of this size is significant because you might go into a mini-slump or a surge by Cleveland when their pitchers get healthy.

 

The injury bug continued when Yasmani Grandal went on the IL July 5. He was the team’s most productive hitter in June. He stopped waiting for walks and was putting good swings on the ball. This was the hitter I expected when he signed with the team. He is expected to be out 4-6 weeks. Since he needed surgery, it is probably closer to six. However, there is also great news on the injury front. Eloy Jimenez should be back at the end of the month with Luis Robert two weeks later. If these two had been healthy the Sox lead would be in double digits.

 

The all-star break comes at a great time for Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu to be rejuvenated and get cooking for the remainder of the year. At one point I thought the Sox were going to make a major move acquiring a second baseman at the trade deadline. However, with the exception of the Pirates’ Adam Frazier, no one has been hotter than Leury Garcia. Garcia was hitting .226 entering June. His average is up to .263 and he is tied for second on the team in RBI. The Sox may deal for a catcher but if the price is right I’d love to have Craig Kimbrel to solidify the bullpen.

 

The Cubs (44-46) got off to a very shaky start, especially with hitting woes. They were the hottest team in May and it looked like they could make the playoffs. However, after a combined no-hitter the Cubs lost 11 straight, are in third place 8 games out.

 

The Cubs’ problems were evident at the start of season. Kyle Hendricks leads the league with 11 wins. Adbert Alzolay shows a lot of promise and looks like he can develop into a stud starter. The Cubs, in a salary dump, traded Yu Darvish for Zach Davies. Davies has been good and bad as his 5-6 record and 4.31 ERA attest to. Darvish is an all-star. The Cubs signed Jake Arietta who hasn’t been good and  injury prone for two years. He had some decent starts then became an unmitigated disaster. They had hoped he could eat up innings, but he can’t get past the second, most of the time putting the Cubs in a big hole. They also added Trevor Williams who was awful before getting hurt. The Cubs bullpen has been better than expected and Craig Kimbrel may be the best closer in baseball. The problem is you don’t get many save opportunities if your team is trailing.

 

I’m still perplexed about why this team can’t hit. It all starts with the big three. After a good start, Kris Bryant’s average has dropped to .271 with a decrease in power. Javier Baez power numbers look good but his average is .235. He has struck out 115 times in only 290 at bats. Anthony Rizzo has had a disappointing season hitting only .247 with 10 homers. Their big off-season signing Joc Pedersen, hasn’t added much to the offense. He is hitting .230 with 11 homers.  He replaced Kyle Schwarber, an all-star hitting .253 with 25 homers and 53 RBI. Hind sight is 20/20.

 

With the trade deadline approaching, the Cubs will be open for business.  They can get a lot of good prospects for Kimbrel and there should be many teams interested. For some reason I see the New York Yankees going after the versatile Bryant. So as not to go into full rebuild I think the Cubs keep Baez. Rizzo is a favorite of GM/President Jed Hoyer so they probably keep him as well.

 

White Sox and Cubs June Swoon

 

June 22, 2021

The Chicago White Sox (43-29) continue to lead the American League Central Division, two games ahead of the Cleveland Indians. Things could have been worse if the Indians didn’t lose two game to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The only thing that can possibly be worse was the White Sox getting swept in a 4 game series with the Houston Astros.

The Sox were on a roll winning 2 of 3 against a good Toronto Blue Jays team. They swept a 3 game series against the Tigers. This set up a match-up between the teams with the two best records. The Sox became the first team to win a series against the Tampa Bay Rays. They then traveled to Houston where the wheels fell off.  Houston possesses the best offense in baseball. There is not an easy out in their line-up. They pounded a very good White Sox pitching staff. With the exception of Carlos Rodon, no Sox starter made it into the fifth inning. The pitching wasn’t helped by the return of the worst defense in all of baseball.  The Sox continued to lead the league, committing three more errors, didn’t get an out in a run down and let a pop fly drop between three defenders.

To make matters worse, the weakness of the offense has reared its ugly head. Jose Abreu is having the worst June of his career. Last year, he had 19 homers and 60 RBI in 60 games. After collecting 2 hits in the Astro series, he has only 12 homers, though he does have 53 RBI in 72 games. However, he has constantly been getting himself out swinging at bad pitches and leaving multiple runners on base. Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, the only other proven hitters, are also not hitting. Although he carried the Sox through April, it’s time to pull the plug on Yermin Mercedes. He is on a 0 for his last 21 and has about 4 hits in his last 60 at bats.

The Sox have been pretty resilient all year, playing without key components to their team. It’s only June and they have an easier schedule ahead. I expect them to bounce back. They don’t face the Astros again until mid-July. The Astros are not as good on the road. Are they still finding ways to cheat?

Despite going 2-6 the Cubs (40-33) are tied for first place with the Milwaukee Brewers.  It seems this race will go down to the wire with the Cardinals and Reds also vying for the division title, as there no teams good enough to take control. With the Cubs contending, President Jed Hoyer has some tough decisions to make.

If you are going to try to get to the post season you’ll need a starter or two. Kyle Hendricks is having a decent, but still a down, year and Zach Davies has been inconsistent. Adbert Alzolay will be good but needs more seasoning. Jake Arrieta has become a complete disaster and there is no pitching help on the horizon. The bullpen has been solid. The resurgence of Craig Kimbrel could lead to a deal at the trading deadline.

The Cub bats were worse than awful to start out the season. They picked up steam as the Cubs were one of the hottest teams In May. The bats once again have become silent. Javier Baez has 16 homers and 44 RBI. He also has an on base percentage of .264. He has struck out 95 times in 235 at bats and his slugging percentage has dipped to .460. Kris Bryant was having an MVP type year until June. His average has plummeted to .277. He only has 13 homers and 39 RBI. Anthony Rizzo hasn’t had a major impact on the offense either. These are the free agents that Hoyer has decide to trade or keep. Being in contention, this will be a hard decision. If the Cubs are struggling in July they could trade all three. On the other hand, if they have bad seasons they should be easier to sign. In the long run, due to his versatility, Bryant should be the only one to stick around. There are a myriad of other players not hitting. Ian Happ and Jason Heyward are well below .200. Joc Pederson is hitting .241 with 11 homers and 36 RBI. The guy he replaced, Kyle Schwarber is hitting .241 with 18 homers and 42 RBI.

Since writing this column the Sox have broken a five game losing streak and are 2.5 games up on Cleveland.

The Cubs have dropped 1/2 game behind Milwaukee

White Sox Cubs World Series? Anything Can Happen

 

June 2, 2021

The Chicago White Sox (33-22) continue to lead the American League Central by 2.5 games, ahead of the Cleveland Indians. If Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert had not been injured, they would be running away in this division. Like last year, the White Sox are clobbering inferior opponents, which is why they are 11 games over .500.

What’s surprising is they’re winning games with only a few players who aren’t automatic outs. Tim Anderson is still the catalyst and is playing great defense. Nick Madrigal is not going to get you any power but will give you quality at-bats. Yoan Moncada is looking like the player he was in 2019. The only thing left is to add more power.  Jose Abreu usually has a bad April and this year was excruciatingly painful. However, he has bounced back and once again leads the majors in RBI. The magic of Yermin Mercedes seems to be wearing off. Even so, think back to last year with Edwin Encarnacion batting .150 as the DH. Occasionally they get some help from others but these players make up most of the offense. They also have a major problem with their catchers. I know hitting is down but Yasmani Grandal is hitting .131. He gets on base a lot with walks but was brought in as a run producer. The Sox keep insisting Zach Collins is getting better. The only thing he has proved is that he can’t hit, as his .187 average attests to.

The strength of the Sox is their starting pitching.  Lucas Giolito is coming back after struggling early. Carlos Rodon has had a few bumps but is still third in ERA.  Lance Lynn leads the league in ERA and was an excellent pick-up. I expect Dylan Cease to get better and Dallas Keuchel to get in the groove and induce more ground ball outs. Liam Hendriks is finally becoming the closer he was projected to be. The Sox have a bunch of good arms to bridge the starter to closer gap. One problem is Aaron Bummer, who is having difficulties.

The Sox should get some help with the return of Adam Engel. And they need to play better defensively. However, the major problem is the manager who keeps proving he was a bad choice.

The Chicago Cubs (31-23) are also in first place by the slimmest of margins. They are one of the hottest teams around. After a terrible start they have turned their season around. With the exception of two losses to Cleveland they have won every series in May and just got done sweeping the San Diego Padres.

Entering the season, the biggest question revolved around the pitching. After getting off to a shaky start, Kyle Hendricks is proving once again he is an elite pitcher. Zach Davies may not be Yu Darvish but he’s pretty darn good. The Cubs finally have developed a pitcher, Adbert Alzolay who keeps getting better and better. In two years he could be the ace of the staff. Questions still surround how good Jake Arrieta will be. He started off well but hasn’t been very good as of late. Trevor Williams had his best start before going on the IL. Out of nowhere Kohl Stewart gave them a solid start in a Cub victory. Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin lead a group of set-up men to get the ball to Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel has regained the form that made him one the best closers.

Kris Bryant is having an MVP season. He is hitting .317 and has an incredible .996 OPS. Javier Baez leads the team with13 homers. His average may not be spectacular however, He has a .508 slugging percentage. Anthony Rizzo, who is coming back from injury, will add more pop to the line-up. The Cubs have also been hit by the injury bug. Next men up Eric Sogard, Patrick Wisdom and Matt Duffy have all contributed to help the Cubs’ cause.

Prior to this stretch, fans may have been wondering who was going to be traded at the deadline. As of now Cub fans would be up in arms if any of the core are let go. Jed Hoyer should go after another starter to help the Cubs reach the playoffs. The other key is avoiding injuries.