Da Bears

 

September 7, 2020

The Bears begin play this Sunday with Matt Nagy in his third season.  Nagy was supposed to be an offensive guru that would revive a dormant offense. In 2018, a stellar defense wasm responsible for most victories, covering up the offensive deficiencies. That year they scored less than 20 points four times, including an ugly playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The defense wasn’t as prolific in 2019. Nagy’s offense scored 20 or less points in 10 of 16 games. Rather than take responsibility, Nagy placed the blame on his coaches. The Bears now have a new offensive line coach with an assistant, a new tight ends coach. John DeFilippo is the new quarterbacks coach and holdover Dave Ragone is now passing game coordinator. The Bears also added a new offensive coordinator. With Nagy in sole charge of the offense I can’t fathom what he does. At least with the pandemic forcing cancellations, Nagy won’t be questioned as to why the regulars had no playing time during exhibition games.

The biggest question in pre-season is who is going to be the Bears QB. The candidates are Nick Foles, who has had a modicum of success, and overall second pick, draft bust Mitch Trubisky. In essence, it was a battle between two second stringers. I’ve always thought this was Trubisky’s job to lose. It was difficult to determine who was better qualified with only practices to go by. Foles would have had to do something extraordinary to win the job. Although he probably wouldn’t start for any other NFL team, Trubisky is the Bears starter. Foles better be prepared when Trubisky fizzles out.  

The Bears completely revamped the tight end position. They signed former pro-bowler Jimmy Graham. His career has been trending downward for the past couple of years. First pick Cole Kmet should see plenty of action as he is the tight end of the future. They’ll have to do the job as there is little depth at this position.

If there is an upside to the offense, it is the wide receivers. Allen Robinson is arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL. I don’t understand why they haven’t negotiated a contract extension. Anthony Miller, when healthy, has shown flashes of being an excellent downfield receiver. The Bears signed veteran speedster Ted Ginn Jr. Although he never has had many receptions, he has been very good running after the catch. Nagy regularly uses a one-back formation so he can put four receivers on the field. The most promising is fifth round draft pick Darnell Mooney, another speedy receiver. Riley Ridley and Javon Wims will also get some opportunities as well.

Even if David Montgomery wasn’t injured, the Bears tandem in the backfield could be one of the worst in the league. Tarik Cohen stood out in 2018 as a rookie who was exciting to watch. Last season he was not an unknown commodity and opposing defenses were able to curtail his production. Montgomery was not good as a single back or in shotgun formation. The only success he had was lining up as the second back in the I-formation. However, Nagy didn’t employ the formation often because he couldn’t run a pass play from it. Neither can power up the middle near the end zone or on short third downs. Rather than target an aging tight end, the Bears should have sought a player who can gain three yards per carry. They had one in 2018.  However, Jordan Howard was the scapegoat for a bad running game and was traded. Nagy said he will employ the run, although I think he will continue to run his pass happy offense and ignore the rushing game. He could have Walter Payton in his backfield and still focus on the passing game.

There are question marks on the defense. They should still be good enough to keep the Bears competitive. The key is to stay healthy and not get exhausted with a bad offense keeping them on the field for three quarters. Akiem Hicks returns and will bolster the pass rush. Eddie Goldman has opted out and will be hard to replace. Bilal Nichols will return on one end of the defensive line. Unless the Bears sign another lineman, Roy Robertson –Harris could replace Goldman.

The strength of the defense are the linebackers. Inside linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith are both pro bowl caliber. Khalil Mack should have a better year with Hicks back.  Newly acquired pass rusher Robert Quinn is the other outside linebacker. This may not allow opponents to double or triple team Mack.

The Bears will need a strong pass rush to help out the secondary. Kyle Fuller returns as one corner. Former nickel back Buster Skrine will be the other. This could change depending on the development of second pick Jaylon Johnson. Eddie Jackson returns   with an inexperienced Deon Bush as the safeties.

Cordarrelle Patterson will return kickoffs and Cohen punts. Injured kicker Eddie Pineiro will start off on the practice and be replaced by Cairo Santos who was with the Kansas City Chiefs with Nagy. Pat O’Donnell returns as the punter.

I hope the Bears catch lightening in a bottle but that would require a major uptick in the offense. With the Vegas over/under at 7 ½, I’ll be optimistic and predict 8-8. Missing the playoffs, should result in drafting the best quarterback available.

On a personal note today would be my beloved sister Sheila’s 65^th birthday. She has been my muse for all my posts, which I’m sure she would have enjoyed.

Chicago Has Baseball Fever

 

August 30, 2020

In my last post I was moaning about the White Sox 11-11 record. Since then they have gone 10-2 and are tied for first place with Cleveland. Minnesota is slumping and are 1.5 games back. For the first time in recent memory, the Sox will be playing meaningful games in September. They open up the month with a three game series at Minnesota.

The impetus for this resurgence was the return of Tim Anderson. He has been a catalyst for the offense. After his usual slow start, Jose Abreu got blazing hot. He is now second in the league with 12 Home Runs and 30 RBI. He is also in the top ten in batting average.  The other major contributor is Eloy Jimenez. As I predicted, he is also in the top ten in average and is among the leaders in Home Runs and RBI. Who would have thought the White Sox would be leading the league in total homers?

Overshadowed by the hitting, the pitching has been pretty good. Dallas Keuchel has been excellent all year. Aside from getting roughed up on opening day, Lucas Giolito is even better than last year’s all-star season. His no-hitter was impressive. He struck out 13 and still threw only 101 pitches. For the most part, Dylan Cease has looked pretty good. He has had control problems but gets out of jams. His ERA is only 3.00. There are still question marks regarding the 4^th and 5^th starters. Dane Dunning may fill one slot and the hope is that Reynaldo Lopez gets better. The relief pitching with one exception has been excellent.

I still strongly believe the Cubs will win their division. You knew that there would be bumps and bruises as the season progressed. After starting 13-3, the Cubs are now 20-14. The hitters are still struggling, although it seems that Anthony Rizzo is turning things around. In their last game against Cincinnati they scored 10 runs.  Maybe this will wake up the offense. However, Javier Baez and Will Contreras went hitless. Ian Happ continues to be their best hitter. I have to believe the offense will get much better.

Yu Darvish is without a doubt one is of baseball’s best starters. He completely dominates games and I see no reason for this to change. He is able to overcome an anemic offense. Kyle Hendricks had a hiccup in his last game but is still an elite pitcher. The problem in his other starts is that he gets very little run support. The rest of the starters are question marks. I don’t how much Jon Lester has left, Tyler Chatwood is hurt again and it’s a crapshoot with Alec Mills. Maybe Jose Quintana can build up his stamina and become part of the rotation. The positive is when the playoffs arrive, you can get by with two pitchers, like the Nationals of last year did with Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. Until then, try to enjoy the roller coaster that is the Cubs season.   

COVID-19 Free First Place Chicago Cubs

 

August 20, 2020

After their first 24 games, the Cubs (16-8) have soared to the top of the National League Central Division. Starting 3-2, they won 6 of 7 against the last place teams in their respective divisions, the Pittsburgh Pirates and K.C. Royals. This is what good teams do. They dominate the teams they’re supposed to and play a little over .500 against the rest. There will probably be some bumps in the road as the season progresses. However, looking at the other teams in the division, the Cubs should probably receive an automatic playoff berth.

The major reason for the good start was the pitching. I took a lot of flak from Cub fans when I said Kyle Hendricks was not an elite pitcher. Heading into the season Hendricks was 21 games over .500. Among current pitchers only the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the Mets Jacob deGrom and the Red Sox Chris Sale have a better E.R.A. than Hendricks. So with apologies, I was wrong. Yu Darvish looks like he has regained his form from last year as one of the best pitchers in baseball. With a little run support and help from the bullpen, the Cubs will win a vast majority of their starts. When you look at both Central Divisions, only the Cleveland Indians Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger pose as good of a dynamic duo at the front of the rotation.

To have a real good season other starters have to help. The most promising is Jon Lester. Although he doesn’t have the same stuff as in the past, he still knows how to get batters out. After him it’s a crapshoot. It looked as if Tyler Chatwood was going to work out. After two games his ERA was 1.60. In his next start he gave up 8 runs in two innings and currently is on the IL. Alec Mills started out with an E.R.A under 2.00, but has since been what was expected, getting hit hard. His ERA has skyrocketed.

Craig Kimbrel’s early season woes cost him his closer role. Former closer Jeremy Jeffress has taken over. However, the set-up men are a big question mark. The good news is Kimbrel has looked great as of late. He even got the save in the Cubs last victory as his fastball was clocked at 98-99 mph. Perhaps Kimbrel and Jeffress can solidify the back end of the bullpen.

It’s a good thing the Cubs have had good pitching because with the exception of Ian Happ, the hitting has been awful. Anthony Rizzo’s .239 average is the best in the top half of the line-up. Javier Baez is flirting with the Mendoza line.

It seemed like a good idea to have Kris Bryant lead off but that hasn’t worked out. The upside is all these players are proven hitters and should improve. The oft injured Bryant has been replaced by Happ in the lead-off spot and should remain there when Bryant returns. Bryant is looking for a big pay day as a free- agent. He has a history of injuries and is having a lousy season. Combined with the virus causing owners to lose money, I don’t believe he will offered the big deal he seeks.  If I were Bryant, I’d re-open negotiations with the Cubs and try to get a long term deal with financial stability.

Former catchers usually make good managers and David Ross is no exception. Keeping him around the organization was a great idea. It allowed a seamless transition in replacing Joe Maddon. He seems to have lit a fire into this team. You can tell he has full control. He had no problem demoting high paid, free-agent acquisition Kimbrel. He is very adept at handling pitching changes. The hope is, it won’t be long before he realizes Bryant should not be the lead-off man.   

 August 17, 2020

After a third of the season, the White Sox (11-11) are a major disappointment. With both the Twins and Indians in their division, the Sox most likely will have to compete for a wild card spot. Injuries have hurt, but they are not the root of the problem.

The much ballyhooed offense is having trouble scoring more than three runs per game. There have been multiple times they have had a runner on third with less than two outs and not scored. The problem is the heart of the line-up. I always thought the reason Jose Abreu had slow starts was because of inclement weather. This year that can’t be an excuse.  The acquisitions that were supposed to make this a dynamic offense have been abysmal. Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Nomar Mazara have a combined .162 batting average, 3 home runs and 14 RBI. The other major problem was the team went into a collective slump. Rookie Luis Robert went from well over .300 to .278. He has the same rookie issues that Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez had. He has struck out 29 times in 88 at bats. Not to worry, he’ll become an excellent offensive player and I haven’t seen a better defensive center-fielder. Moncada was well over .300 and inexplicably is now at .260. Jimenez went 0 for 22 and his average plummeted to.249. However, he has rebounded nicely and leads the team with 7 home runs and 17 RBI.    

What to do? I never thought I would pine for Adam Engel in right field. Engel has progressed as a hitter and no longer is an automatic out. He would also be a major upgrade defensively. Power hitter Encarnacion has only two home runs and is a ground ball, strike out machine. The DH should be James McCann. In their last game, the Sox hit 4 home runs in a row and won 7-2. This could be the spark they need to get going. What worries me is 8 of the last 10 runs have come via the home run.

Dallas Keuchel has been the only consistently good starter. After getting pounded in the opener, Lucas Giolito had three excellent starts before giving up 5 runs in the first inning against St. Louis. He has to regain last year’s form for the Sox to be competitive. Dylan Cease has been just okay. He could be really good if he had a better command of his pitches. Reynaldo Lopez got two outs and then allowed 4 runs and left in the first inning with an injury. He was relieved by Gio Gonzalez who gave 5 runs. That earned him a place as a starter. He hasn’t lasted 5 innings. Carlos Rodon coming off surgery was projected to be ready by the end of August. With Michael Kopech opting out, they rushed him into the rotation. Rodon had two horrible starts. He reinjured his arm and joined Reynolds on the IL.

The bullpen has been very good. They will get better when left-hander Aaron Bummer returns from injury. Ross Detwiler, 20^th round draft pick Matt Foster and Alex Colome have not allowed a run all year. I don’t know what happened to the struggling Steve Cishek. He was never this lousy as a Cub.

Many times this year the Sox seem to come out flat. This reflects on Manager Ricky Renteria. His mellow laid back demeanor does not fit with this team. He also has made many bad moves. There are too many to list, so we’ll just go back to game two of the doubleheader against St. Louis. With the Sox clinging to a one run lead, the Cardinals have a runner on third with two outs. Paul Goldschmidt is up. He is one of the majors and the Cardinal’s best hitter. The proper move is to walk him and take your chances with the next hitter. Renteria decides to pitch to him and he promptly singles to tie the game.  In the bottom of the seventh, the Sox need two men on base to have the tying run at the plate. The Sox get a man on base and would like to get another runner to bring up Encarnacion as the tying run. Two outs later with still only one man on, they decide to pinch hit with Encarnacion. Even in the unlikely event he homers, they are still a run down. No matter, he does what he does best and strikes out.     

Hockey in August

 

August 10, 2020

I guess I was way off base when I said the 12^th seeded Blackhawks would be lucky to win one game against the 5^th seeded Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have the two top scorers (Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid) and the best power play in NHL history. They are also lightning fast, while the recent vintage of Blackhawk teams have been slow. Imagine my surprise when the Hawks completely dominated in a 6-4 first game victory. The Hawks were their very sloppy old selves the next game, losing 6-3. I thought the Hawks were all but done trailing 3-2 in the final minutes of game three. Then it seemed like the old-time magic of the previous Stanley Cup winners came back. The Hawks scored twice in the last 5 minutes; the game winner coming with 1:19 left for a comeback win. Up 2 games to one, I starting believing the Hawks could win this series. In game 4 with the game tied, I thought the Hawks were doomed after committing a 5 minute major penalty. Fortunately, with a dumb Oiler penalty, the Hawks penalty killing unit only had to shut them down for three minutes. The Hawks were able to score and hang on for a scintillating 3-2 series clinching game.

The Hawks defense was outstanding in holding the Oilers to 5 goals in the last two games. At 37 years old, Duncan Keith is still a premier defenseman. Connor Murphy has been good for a long time. Olli Maatta not only played good defense but showed some offensive ability carrying the puck up ice. Unsung Slater Koekkoek, was excellent as well. The defense caused numerous off-side penalties. This was critical as it slowed the tempo and the ensuing face-offs were out of the defensive zone. The Hawks were also much better in clearing the puck out of the defensive end.

Jonathan Toews had one the best stretches I’ve seen in a long time. He was involved in the scoring and was excellent on face-offs. Brandon Saad can create his own and line mates scoring chances. He is very good controlling the puck in an opponent’s defensive territory. Set up by Patrick Kane, rookie Dominik Kubalik continued to score multiple goals as he did prior to the shutdown. Fellow rookie Kirby Dach has vastly improved and was super. He showed why he will be a star for many years to come.

The major reason for the Hawks success is goaltender Corey Crawford. After recovering from the coronavirus, he only had a couple days to get ready. Although the defense was good, Edmonton still was able to barrage him with shots and he stood on his head to make outstanding saves. It’s well known, that with a hot goalie you can make a long playoff run.

Finally, the Hawks should thank the Oilers for numerous penalties. Although with the exception of game one the Hawks didn’t capitalize. However, the Oilers offense was severely crippled being short-handed. It was fitting that with a little over 2 minutes left in game four, the Oilers were called for a penalty. In what would have made former North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith proud, the Hawks played a perfect four corners set-up,  hanging on to the puck and moving on to the next round.   

 

      

The Stupidity of Baseball

July 24, 2020

After much bickering the owners and players agreed to a 60 game schedule. Although I was not overjoyed, I figured 60 is better than no games. In a short season this would have made each game more important than one in 162 game regular season.

Leave it to the stupidity of the MLB to render the 60 game season meaningless. The playoffs have been expanded from 10 to 16 teams. What differentiated baseball from other pro leagues is not over half of the teams make the playoffs. In this new scenario, you can play less than .500 and make the post season.

 I am pretty sure that TV playoff money had something to do with this decision. Let us hope this format is gone in a non-pandemic year.

 I heard there was concern regarding three men in close quarters during an at bat. With all the rule changes and safety being a priority, why didn’t baseball try out a robotic umpire to call balls and strikes?

Play Ball

July 19, 2020

It will be like playing in a post season atmosphere from the start. The young White Sox only have three players with this experience. Nevertheless, the talent is good enough for them to compete. What they need is a good start, to instill some confidence. For the first time in years, the Sox should play meaningful games in September.

The best news in recent days was Yoan Moncada returning after testing positive for the coronavirus.He was asymptomatic so he shouldn’t miss a lot of time. Although overshadowed by the major league batting leader, shortstop Tim Anderson, and A.L. RBI leader, first baseman Jose Abreu, he is probably their best offensive player. Moncada finished third in the batting title race and led the Sox in on-base and slugging percentage.

Eloy Jimenez was on fire when the season ended and is poised for an MVP type season. Another player to watch is five-tool rookie centerfielder Luis Robert. The Sox also added Edwin Encarnacion to DH and  catcher Yasmani Grandal. He is not only good offensively, but will help young pitchers with his framing of pitches and defense.  The Sox should have plenty of offensive firepower, even more when Moncada returns.

The Sox also look good on the pitching front. All-Star Lucas Giolito leads the staff. The number two starter is consistent and former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel. With a year under his belt, Dylan Cease could have a break-out season. In his last four starts, he gave up only 7 runs. Reynaldo Lopez has tremendous stuff and at times was unhittable. Other times he was awful. Gio Gonzalez is an above average number five starter. Former ace Carlos Rodon may replace Lopez if he can’t get it together. Rodon and top prospects Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert can be significant contributors if the starters don’t go six innings at the start of the season. When the starters go six innings, they can hand off the lead to Steve Cishek for the seventh, Aaron Bummer in the eighth and close it out with Alex Colome in the ninth. A good bullpen will be needed for success in a short season.

The Sox may win 35 games however, with tough competition not make it to the post season. But this will be a great springboard for 2021.

In contrast to the White Sox, the Cubs have an experienced core group when it comes to playing important games August and September. This might be the last hurrah for this group. With many question marks, the one thing the Cubs need is to avoid injuries. In past years injuries to Kris Bryant and Javier Baez have debilitated this team.

One of the first moves Manager David Ross did was inserting Kris Bryant to lead off. Bryant has a great on base percentage and should provide many RBI opportunities for Anthony Rizzo and Baez. With the designated hitter and not the pitcher hitting ahead of him, Bryant should have better success driving in runs. The problem I have with Ross is he wants to go righty followed by lefty and has Jason Heyward hitting fourth. Heyward has never hit like the Cubs expected when they signed him to a long term contract. With .264 batting average he could be a rally killer. However, he doesn’t have many other options if he wants to construct his batting order this way.

In Bryant and Baez, the Cubs have one of the best left sides of the infield in the game. Anthony Rizzo is in the upper echelon of first basemen.  They seem to be leaning toward Jason Kipnis at second base. In his past three years his averages have been .232, .230 and.245. The Cubs would be better served with Nico Hoerner or David Bote.

Even with Heyward batting fourth, the top of the line-up is loaded and will produce a lot of runs. Kyle Schwarber keeps getting better and better. In 2017 his average was .211.  Last year it was up to .250. He had his best home run output with 38. If he continues to improve, he could be very dangerous. Right now he would probably be a better option at number four in the line-up. His defense has also improved. However, it seems he will mostly be the designated hitter. If so the outfield leaves a lot to be desired.  According to my Cub consultant, Ian Happ will be in left field. He has to hit better than .264. He hit 24 homers in 2017. Last year he hit only 11. In centerfield you have Albert Almora Jr. His average in 2017 was .298. In 2018 it dipped to .286. Last year was a disaster at .236 with no power. With Heyward in right, the outfield defense is fine but you need more offensive production. I know hindsight is 20/20, but if you knew the National League was going to adopt the designated hitter, resigning Nick Castellanos would have been  a good idea.

In past years the strength of this team was the pitching.  They do have one of the best pitchers in Yu Darvish. He is a joy to watch as batters flail at his assortment of pitches. If he opts out, the Cubs are in deep doo-doo. Opening day starter, Kyle Hendricks, has been pretty good since being acquired in 2015. I don’t think he is an elite pitcher. Jon Lester over the course of a full season is just mediocre, as attested to his 13 wins and 4.48 ERA. The hope for the Cubs is that in a short season he can amp it up and give them quality starts. With Jose Quintana sidelined the rest of the rotation is a crapshoot. Tyler Chatwood, who has never lived up to expectations is your number 4 starter. Because he is out of options, Alec Mills is your number five. From what I know he doesn’t get me excited. Eventually you may see Cub Colin Rea or Adbert Alzolay crack the rotation.

 What may hinder the Cubs most is a suspect bullpen. The primary set-up men are Kyle Ryan and Rowan Wick. Neither has pitched a full major league season. To assist these two, the Cubs acquired former Milwaukee reliever Jeremy Jeffress who will try to bounce back from a 5.02 ERA. Even if the set-up men do their jobs, the closer remains Craig Kimbrel who once was an elite closer. Kimbrel has fallen on hard times in the past couple of years. There must have been a reason he was available until June when the Cubs were desperate for a closer. He saved thirteen games but will be remembered for blown saves. In a pivotal series in the second to last weekend, he took two loses to the Cardinals practically ending any Cubs hopes for post season play. I don’t think I can live with a closer who comes in for one inning and has 6.58 ERA. He also gave up 9 homers in 20 innings.

Since the Dodgers are going to run away with their division, the wild card will come from the other two. If the Cubs can grind their way to 32 wins they should be a wild card.