After the Break

July 27, 2018

For those of you who think baseball is boring, you haven’t been watching the Chicago Cubs. They must lead the major leagues in come –from- behind victories. For my money nothing is more exciting than pulling victory from defeat. Thursday’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is perfect example. Trailing six to one the Cubs scored two runs in the fifth inning. In the sixth they added another run on a wild pitch strikeout to Baez. Trailing six to four entering the ninth Cubs go to work. With one out David Bote, brought up to replace an injured Kris Bryant, hits a two- run homer to tie the game. Anthony Rizzo follows with the game -winning home run.

The Cubs have gone 5-4 since the break. Their lead in the division remains at 2 1/2 games. However, there are some concerns. The Cubs played reasonably well against St. Louis and then the hitting disappeared in the first three games against Arizona. They may not have won game three without the splendid performance from Jon Lester.  Lester has been good virtually all year and Quintana is doing okay for a number three on a pitching staff. Their number two, Kyle Hendricks is struggling. This not the same guy from the past two years. If this continues you have three holes in your five- man rotation.

Injuries also play a major part, no matter what the sport. The Cubs have two major injuries. Kris Bryant is currently on the 10-day disabled list. He is arguably their best offensive player and you want him in your lineup. The closer, Brandon Morrow, has a biceps injury and his return status is undetermined. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr. and Steve Cishek have been good but you need your closer.

 

Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Rosenbloom stole my thunder with his piece on finding some sucker to trade for James Shields. He even suggested the White Sox pay a team to take him. There are some other things worth discussing about a team that may not win 50 games.

The injuries the Sox have incurred is sadly to their prospects. In spring training they lost third baseman Jake Burger for the year.  Top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez has looked really good but has missed many games with leg injuries. Prospect Luis Robert started the season 10 weeks late after a thumb injury. Another outfielder with potential, Micker Adolfo, is out for the remainder of the season. Currently rated the number fifty-seven prospect, pitcher Alec Hansen, developed forearm softness and began an extended spring training in April. Finally, future closer Zack Burdi just had Tommy John surgery.

First- round pick, shortstop Nick Madrigal, can’t reach the majors fast enough. I think we’ve seen the best of Tim Anderson. Even with 13 home runs his OPS is only .704.  He is second in most errors by a shortstop with 14 Last year he had 28 He may have 21 stolen bases and could have more if his on- base percentage was higher than .296. Alas, he is only half the problem on the left side of the infield. Yomar Sanchez has an on base percentage of.309. Despite leading the league with nine triples, his OPS is .700. What makes this a bigger problem is I don’t see a replacement on the current roster.

First Half Recap

July 17, 2018

The All-Star break is always a good time to reflect on what transpired in the first half of the season. For the most part, the playoff teams are set, although there are still many games left on the schedule.

Major league baseball can be divided into three categories: the really good teams, meddling teams with no chance and the rebuilders. The Cleveland Indians are currently leading the A.L. Central by 71/2 games. The left side of their infield is the best in baseball. Shortstop Francisco Lindor hits for power and average, and his on base plus slugging is .920. Third baseman Jose Ramirez has a 1.062 OPS. The pitching staff has two studs- Trevor Bauer (2.24 ERA) and Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber (2.76 ERA). The bullpen has been shaky but should improve when Andrew Miller comes off the disabled list.

 The Houston Astros are leading the A.L. West by five games. The Seattle Mariners were close, but they have gone 3-7 to close out the first half. The Astro’s is .920 lineup is anchored by the threesome of Carlos Correa (.832 OPS), batting champion Jose Altuve (.865 OPS) and- up and coming star third baseman Alex Bregman (.928 OPS). They are second in runs scored with 500. They also possess the best starting pitching in the game:  Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel ,  Charles Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. They lead all of baseball with a team ERA of 2.94.

The Boston Red Sox and the N.Y. Yankees have the two best records. The Red Sox have a 4½ game lead, and Boston’s powerful offense is first in runs scored with 530. The Yankees are third with 493. Leading the way for the Red Sox are Mookie Betts, first in batting average, seventh in home runs and third in runs scored. J.D. Martinez leads the majors in home runs and RBI and is third in average.  The Yankees lead the majors with 161 home runs .Aaron Judge has 25 and OPS .934. Giancarlo Stanton has 23 home runs and .864 OPS. Four other players have an OPS of.800. Injured rookie Gleyber Torres’s OPS is .905.  With Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, Boston has better starters. The Yankees have the best closer in the game, Aroldis Chapman, who has 26 saves, and a deeper bullpen. The Yankees’ 3.48 ERA is a tad lower than the Red Sox's. This race can tighten up in a hurry.

The National League is not quite as settled as the American.  Most considered the Dodgers favorites to win the N.l. West. With Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco (I don’t know how they win games) playing well, the Dodgers were in fourth place 71/2 games out. Arizona went ice cold (how ironic), the others played poorly and the Dodgers as usual rode their great pitching to first place.

 Washington was supposed to run away with N.L. East.. Right now the Nationals trail the two most surprising teams, the first place Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The Phillies, who are sixth in pitching and only 12^th in runs scored have a slim lead.  Freddie Freeman (.938 OPS) and newly acquired Nick Markakis (.877 OPS) propel the Braves offense to fourth in runs scored. They are fifth in pitching. I still expect Washington to make some second- half noise.

The Milwaukee Brewers were in first place for a majority of the first half with the Chicago Cubs lurking. The Brewers have lost six straight, the last five to a bad Pittsburgh Pirates team. The Cubs swept a three game series against an even worse San Diego Padres team.  Hence, the Cubs are 21/2 games up, five in the loss column. The National League leaders in runs scored and with the second -best ERA won’t look back. They will win this division running away.

Cubs- Fine, White Sox-Same Old Story

July 5, 2018

The Cubs have an off day, similar to the last 5 playing the sisters of the poor. This is also known as the American League Central. The only good team, Cleveland, has the worst record of all the division leaders yet have an insurmountable edge over the second place team. All the other division races have a ways to go before you can predict the winner.

In a previous post, I talked about the Cubs pension for beating up on bad teams. A home stand beginning with Minnesota and Detroit is a good way to build momentum.  The Cubs usually win with great pitching and defense. However, in the three games against Minnesota the Cubs surrendered 25 runs and still swept the series scoring 35. In the next 2 wins over Detroit, the Cubs overcame a 3-0 deficit and came back to tie and then take the lead. They are really good at this comeback thing.  Excellent relief pitching wraps it up, Cubs win 5-3. Behind Quintana pitching, rookie Bote first home run and a Baez steal of home the Cubs win game 2, 5-2.   Speaking of Baez, why do pitchers keep throwing him strikes?

The Cubs have games remaining against the second worst team in baseball, Kansas City, 2 more in Detroit and a late September 3 game series against the White Sox. Aside from Cleveland, so far the Cubs are 7-1 against the A.L. Central. The problem is Milwaukee plays these teams as well.

Upcoming is a payback series against the Reds. The only real hiccup all year was in Cincinnati. The Cubs have pitching, hitting and defense. What I recently discovered is how well they run the bases. They are phenomenal from first to third on singles.

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In my last post I raved about the young pitching. In the last week Giolito gets lit up and Covey reverts to 2017 and gets rocked twice. The Sox go 2-4 against last place Texas and a better than I thought last place Cincinnati. The Reds are over .500 since Jim Riggleman took over as manager.

After getting their clocks cleaned in the first 2 games in Texas, the White Sox get another quality start from Reynaldo Lopez and win game 3. He has been the most consistent starter this year.  In Kansas City, James Shields has turned his season around and had another good start in game 1. The Sox were leading 3-1 in the 8^th inning and although he had only thrown 88 pitches, Renteria takes him out. Because he mismanaged his bullpen in Texas, he had to bring in Volstad who usually doesn’t relieve in this situation. He struggled and coughed up the lead. He may have fared better if not for a dumb play by Matt Davidson. Let me set it up. Bases loaded one out grounder. He runs toward first base, then instead of taking the sure out comes short and throws wild and late trying to get the runner at home. Next batter hits what should have been a third out sacrifice fly.

In game 2 it’s 4-0 after the first four batters, Sox cut the lead to 4-2.  Giolito gives up a 3 run homer making 7-2 in favor of the Reds. Sox come back to tie game at 7.  Bottom eighth is typical White Sox. Reds' Hamilton singles, moves to second on sacrifice and easily steals third as the pitcher doesn’t even look back. Ground ball to Sanchez, he holds Hamilton but doesn’t take a step toward third to make Hamiltion retreat. He throws to first to get the batter out. Meanwhile Hamilton runs home to make it 8-7. Red hot Avisail Garcia hits his second home run in top of the 9^th to tie the game. Then, in extra innings a walk and two bad errors by the Reds loads the bases. They looked just like the Sox. Moncada clears the bases with a triple and they tack on another to win 12-8. 

Game 3 Sox jump out to 3-0 lead. Covey is perfect through innings but proceeds to give 6 runs in fourth, game over. Now they go to Houston who swept them at home.

Winning and Losing in Chicago

June 28, 2018

On any given day your team can win or lose. For the most part, every team wins 60 and loses 60. It’s what you do in the other 40 that counts. Every year you have exceptions to this old adage. This year the Orioles, Royals and White Sox are all poised lose 100 games.

Since my last post, the Cubs got swept by the juggernaut Cincinnati Reds. A team with World Series aspirations should not lose 4 in a row to a team 13 games under .500. It wasn’t so much losing the games as it was how ugly they were. Home runs including a grand slam to pitchers. Blowing late leads, giving up seven runs the seventh inning of game 4. Is there an explanation?

Aside from Lester most Cub starters are not getting past the 6^th inning. This puts a lot of pressure on relief pitchers arms. Worn out pitchers get hit and give up runs. As good as Pedro Strop has been he got lit up in Cincinnati. What happened to Kyle Hendricks?

I’ve always thought that injuries can devastate a good team. Happens every year. Therefore, no matter how good Baez has been they still need Kris Bryant. This is especially true with Rizzo struggling. They also need their top set-up man, Edwards, and closer Morrow to get healthy.

The Cubs redeemed themselves, splitting 4 games with the Dodgers. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last eight games and only lost a ½ game in the standings. Thank god for the lousy Central Division.

People have told me I’m too negative regarding the White Sox. After splitting with Oakland and taking 2 of 3 from Minnesota, I’m upgrading from 5 to just bad, bad, bad.

Staying positive General Manager Rick Hahn made his best move, getting rid of Trayce Thompson. Speaking of bad hitting outfielders, Engel is getting less playing time now that Avisail Garcia is back from injury. Lucas Giolito has looked great in his last 3 starts. Carlos Rodon had his best outing since coming back with 8 strong innings of two run ball. Throw in a good Dylan Covey and Reynaldo Lopez and you have 4 of 5 starters for the rebuild. You also have a couple of stud guys in the minors who can be a fifth starter.

I look at the product on the field and it makes me sad. It seems they are so far away from being competitive. If the pitching doesn’t come through you’re going to continue to lose not only now, but next year as well. They have some good young talent that won’t be ready for a while. My problem is whether ready or not they are better than who’s playing now? Play a team that has a better chance of winning. Some prospects are ready. Those that are hurt should get a little seasoning and brought up. They can’t do any worse and would be much more fun watching.

You know who the contenders are

June 22, 2018

As the Baseball season continues, it’s the time of year you can pretty much figure who the contenders are. Cleveland is the only division leader that’s a lock. As predicted, Yankees or Red Sox in East with one being a wild card. Houston has opened their lead on Seattle, which would be a wild card team as of now. California is dead.

In the National League I think it will be dog fight in the East between the Nationals and the surprising Braves. Philadelphia is at least a year away. The main reason the Diamondbacks have resisted the Dodgers strong push is first baseman Paul Goldschmiidt breaking out of his slow start. In the last 15 games he’s batting .459, on base .542, slugging .984 with 8 HR and 20 RBI.

The Chicago Cubs have gone 5-5 in last 10 and trail Milwaukee by one game. I don’t know when the Cubs will get hot and blow by this team. Last year it was after the all-star break. However, Cub fans want the streak to happen now. I thought this might have happened after taking two of three from the Dodgers. Then they lose to the moribund Cincinnati Reds.

The pitching has been steady with Mike Montgomery replacing Yu Darvish in the rotation. Hats off to Jon Lester who I thought was on the decline. He doesn’t have the 98mph fastball or trick pitches. He has great command which is why he is 9-2 with a 2.10 ERA . They also need a healthy Morrow. Where was Strop? Justin Wilson your plane is boarding.

The biggest problem I see is the offense goes AWOL. What’s puzzling is in some games they score a lot of runs (348) and are hitting .259. Maybe it’s a feast or famine thing. What pleases most Cub fans is the hitting of Jason Hayward. With right field looking okay, it’s time for Theo work out a deal for Manny Machado and ensure a place in the World Series.

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The biggest question for White Sox fans. When do the Bears start training camp? After winning a series against Milwaukee and Boston and splitting with Minnesota and Cleveland, I thought maybe the Sox were improving. Well, they are in the midst of a seven game losing streak. This a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad baseball team. I liked the idea of rebuilding, although this will take many years with all the holes on this team.

There are only two position players worth keeping, Abreu and Moncada. Even though all prospects do not make it (unless they are Theo Epstein’s) I would not yet consider Moncada a bust. He has shown signs of promise, especially before a 10 day absence due to an injury. However, the 102 strikeouts in only 255 at bats is very disconcerting. Defensively challenged, and a .231 average, second to Moncada, with 82 strikeouts is shortstop Tim Anderson. He has to be replaced.  Third Baseman Yomar Sanchez may be good for your club house, but not in your line up. He needs to go. Too bad the rebuild shows no replacements on the horizon. The whole minor league outfield has to go. Jimenez will replace one, others may be ready in two years. Top prospect Robert is in A ball. Catching is another position where the top prospect Zach Collins is in AA ball.

With first year pitchers in the rotation, you knew there would be ups and downs. Too bad there were more downs. Carson Fulmer is so down he is now in the minors looking for his control on the major league level; Gioloto is looking for his. Lopez and Covey have at times looked good with ups outweighing the downs. Rodon, not quite back from DL is getting stronger. They should all improve with a year of experience. If not, they have a slew of young pitchers, some of whom may be ready. Expect a major improvement when James Shields is gone. The relief pitching has gotten better with Rondon and Fry. Soria is doing a great job as a closer and therefore he will be flipped at the trading deadline.

Exciting Baseball for Cubs, White Sox

June 12, 2018

There are many people who think baseball is boring. The games move slow, not enough runs etc. However, regardless if you love the game, there has been plenty of excitement in Chicago.

The Cubs coming off a successful road trip, albeit against bad competition, came home against a good Philadelphia Phillies team for three games. The Cubs lost the first game, ending their four game win streak. It looked as though they would lose game two. They coughed up a three run lead. Brandon Morrow was brought on with the game tied and proceeded to give up his first homer as a Cub, leaving them two behind. The Cubs mounted a comeback loading the bases with one out. Zobrist hits a weak grounder to the pitcher for force out at home. Cub fans groan because coming up is the under-achieving Jason Heyward hitting .129 against left hand pitching. In what seemed like an eternity the count goes to 2-2. Heyward hits the walk off grand slam. Talk about excitement. Wrigley goes bananas.

This propels them to win 3 more in a row. This streak ends when the great Joe Maddon pinch hits for Hendricks in the FIFTH with the Cubs only one behind. Runners on first and second and no outs, you let your pitcher bunt. La Stella may be a great pinch hitter, the operative word being pinch. Save him for later, but Joe burns that option as he grounds into a double play. The next game against the Brewers would turn out better. In a great pitching duel, Cubs score one in the eighth to tie the game with a single by Jason Heyward against one of the top left handed relievers, Josh Hader. Not many teams are going to beat the Cubs in a battle of bullpens. Cubs win an extra inning thriller.

One of the reasons the Cubs are a good team is great defense, just look at the Ian Happ game of three electrifying catches. Almora gets to everything in the center and Heyward makes hard catches look easy. The infield is strong especially up the middle. The catcher picks people off and shuts down running games. This is fun to watch.

The White Sox were even more exciting than the Cubs. After taking 2 of 3 against the Brewers, they went to Minnesota. They should have won the first game. Their best pitcher, Reynaldo Lopez, goes 7 innings giving no runs on two hits. For some inexplicable reason Ricky Renteria brings in Nate Jones who blows the game as only he can. They win two of the next three for a split against a team that usually gives them trouble.

More excitement at Fenway Park in Boston. What are the odds that Dylan Covey would out-duel Chris Sale? The Sox manufactured one run and that’s all they needed. Covey goes 6 innings, the improving relief shuts down the best hitting team in baseball. Game 2 Carlos Rodon looked really good and was getting better as the game wore on, which is a good omen. He could possibly have gotten the win if not for porous defense committing 3 errors. Game 3 featured another strong performance by Lopez. Six strong innings of 1 run baseball. Tim Anderson makes a heads up play scoring from second on a infield ground ball to give the Sox a 3-1 lead. In the seventh inning, after a walk, Renteria puts in Nate Jones. He gets one out, walks a batter and hits another to load the bases. Maybe Renteria is learning as he pulls Jones before he can do more damage. Jason Fry overcomes an error and gets out of the jam and pitches the the 8^th. With the Sox leading 3-2, Daniel Palka, who is among the leaders in exit velocity, crushes a 2 run double in the 9^th for insurance. Soria goes 3 up-3 down for the save.

The Sox are playing much better, winning 4 out of 6 games against teams with the best records in the National and American Leagues. The hitters for the most part are struggling, and the defense is lousy. However, they are getting some good starting pitching and with the exception of Nate Jones, the relief has improved greatly. The additions of Fry, Rondon and Soria are the primary reasons. They also have been getting good situational use from Volstad, Avilan and newly called up Xavier Cedeno.  While this may make fans happy, but better things are up ahead. But, they probably still lose 100 games.

A Tale of Two Teams

  June 5, 2018

Cub fans led by Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan are all giddy regarding the Cubs recent 5-1 road trip.  In the words of Seth Meyers let’s take a closer look.

The Cubs split a brief two game series with the mediocre and fading fast Pirates. Losing the second game with their powerful offense scoring one run. The next four games were against the awful Mets. This team has one of the worst line ups in baseball.  They have scored 231 runs. For comparison the Cubs have 293. Aside from Chatwood the Mets scored 2 runs in three games The Cubs couldn’t hit deGrom but no one does. He is one of the best pitchers as he leads the league in ERA. My favorite is game four of the series. The Cubs didn’t hit much but the Earl Weaver play of the pick off to first resulted in Baez stealing home. The second run, a sacrifice short fly could have been averted if the right fielder calls off the second baseman to make the catch. Ah you can’t beat fun at the old ball park.

I know you have to play the schedule, just don’t get too excited about dominating the Mets. On a more promising note the bullpen has been really good and Brandon Morrow up to this point a great closer. This bodes well in today’s game where winners have to possess great relief pitching.

The Cubs can thank the White Sox playing their best games of the year, taking two of three from the Brewers shrinking their lead to two. Dylan Covey looks like he has figured things out after getting pounded last year. He is now the mix along with Carlos Rodon coming back this weekend against Boston. This series has all the makings of a disaster. Boston is the best team in baseball, the other Sox one of the worst.

 The Brewers are one of those teams following the lead of the great bullpen that led Kansas to a World Series title.  They have pitchers to cover the 7^th 8^th and 0^th innings. However, if you get the starters out early or have the game tied, the middle relief is very beatable. The White Sox won beating up on two former Sox relievers Matt Albers and Dan Jennings. Contrary, the Sox finally got some good relief pitching.

The hitting has been spotty at best. Moncada hasn’t got his stroke back after going on the DL. To combat his high strike out totals, it’s good to see him more aggressive earlier in counts. Abreu  leads the league in doubles andis hitting close to .300. Would like to see more home runs. Danny Polka can hit and would be a perfect DH but that means a bad Trayce Thompson plays. Don’t look now Adam Engel is hitting over.220. Considering he was well under .200 this is good. Probably this won't last.

 The Seattle Mariners are in first place one game ahead of the Astros in the AL West. Although this is surprising let me tell you why. Jean Segura .331 and Dee Gordon .296 , 19 stolen bases set the table for Mitch Heniger 42 RBI and .871 OPS  and the always dangerous Nelson Cruz. This line up

gets even better when Robinson Cano returns. The starting pitchers led by James Paxton who has a no-hitter and Felix Hernandez who is starting to look like his old self. The Mariners also have the best relief pitching to cover the latter innings. James Pazos, 1.99 ERA, Chasen Bradford 1.31 ERA ad Edwin Diaz 21 saves and 2.84 ERA.