New Regime Giving Bulls Fans Hope

 

January 27, 2021

New executive vice-president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisivas and his general manager Marc Eversley, have the Bulls trending in the right direction. It will take time for the Bulls to be competitive with interdivision rivals like the Bucks, Net 76ers and Celtics. Based on his track record, I believe Karnisovas will make moves to narrow the gap between the Bulls and upper echelon teams. By year three or four they could be competing for championships.  

Karnisovas immediately endeared himself to fans by ridding the team of cancer, Coach Jim Boylen.  He was replaced by the much more modern Billy Donnovan. He has won elsewhere and is a player’s coach. He is well respected and has his team better prepared. He is doing a really good job with the hand he was dealt.

The Bulls starters are all 25 or younger. Therefore, you can expect growing pains. Karnisovas first round pick, fourth overall was 19 year old Patrick Williams. He is already their best defensive player. As he becomes more adjusted he should up his scoring average and may become a future star. Zach LaVine is a prolific scorer. He has improved defensively and sometime facilitates the offense.  However, he has the ball too often and is a major contributor to the Bulls leading the league in turnovers. Center Wendell Carter improves every year, then gets shut down by injuries. He has missed the last three games and is out the next four more weeks. I see no upside to an injury prone player.  Forward Lauri Markkanen has not improved from his rookie season. The problem may be when his shot is off, he loses confidence. There were some thought that first round pick Coby White could develop into a point guard. That is not who he is a player. He makes too many bad decisions and is defensive liability. Sometimes he shoots well and may be more suited to coming off the bench to provide offense. Cater, Markkanen and White should all be trade bait this off season   Savvy veterans Otto Porter, Thadeus Young and free agent signee Garrett Temple give the Bulls one of benches in the league. There is a large possibility they will be traded to a contender before the deadline.

The Bulls will have some exciting wins and more often agonizing loses as the season progresses. They may win enough games to qualify for the watered down playoffs.  While this may prove be exciting I it might not be the best thing. The Bulls need to be in a position to wheel and to deal to obtain the point guard they desperately need.

Bad News Bears

 January 13, 2021

I do not know about you, but I am pissed off. The Bears are bringing back both Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy for next year. This is similar to what Jerry Reinsdorf's teams do, prioritize loyalty over winning. Probably a bigger reason they are bringing these two back is that Bears management doesn't want to admit their mistakes. It’s hard to believe that management thought beating teams like Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville meant anything. There was no improvement on last year’s 8-8 season and an ugly performance in a playoff loss. This may sound like a broken record, however, it bears repeating.

General Manager Ryan Pace has only one first round pick signed for next year. Although he has had a modicum of success in later rounds, it’s the first round where you find game changing players. He did trade for Khalil Mack, giving up two first round draft picks. This made a good defense an elite one. After his first season he regressed and the former Defensive Player of the Year is no longer the best player on that side of the ball. Pace stunned the NFL, picking QB Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017. This set the franchise back four years. I’m not going to chastise him for not picking Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson, as there were question marks on all three. The problem was in college Trubisky was a back-up until his senior season. Good QBs usually start in their second or third year in college. Pace’s latest disaster is not extending the contract of their best offensive player, Allen Robinson. This has already left a sour taste in Robinson’s mouth. The Bears could use the franchise tag to re-sign him, but that’s why he wanted out at Jacksonville.

McCaskey, Phillips and Pace were all culprits in the hiring of Matt Nagy. He was put in charge to improve the offense and develop Trubisky. He failed miserably on both accounts. The Bears went 12-4 in his first year and he was voted Coach of the Year. However, without Vic Fangio’s defense that team finishes 8-8 at best.  Making the playoffs endeared him the Bears brass. The loss in that playoff game is usually attributed to Cody Parkey missing a game winning field goal.  The only reason he needed to kick was that Nagy’s offense only generated a whopping 15 points. His mystery play calling is baffling and he still doesn’t know how to install an effective running game.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they re-signed Trubisky. He hasn’t shown any improvement in four years. He still has lousy footwork and can’t read defenses. His accuracy is pretty good, unless you need a pass of more than 7 yards. Even on those rare occasions when he throws downfield, his receivers have to make great catches for completions. He is also prone to turnovers. Particularly frustrating are interceptions in the end zone.

You can probably bank on another losing season in 2021. The Bears will again entrust Pace to choose a quarterback in the first round. Getting into the playoffs this year was the worst thing that could have happened. Their first pick is 20^th overall, where it will be hard to find a quarterback of the future. 

For Nagy and Pace It's Time to Go

 

January 11, 2021

The Bears started out the season 5-1. The hope was they could play five hundred the rest of the way, finish at 10-6 and get ready to make run in the post season. Instead they went 3-7 including a loss to the lowly Detroit Lions and wound up 8-8. The Arizona Cardinals lost their last two games allowing the Bears to back into the playoffs and get a lower draft pick. The Bears lost 21-9 to the much better New Orleans Saints team. Coach Matt Nagy’s fingerprints are all over this game. I have criticized Nagy all year when his offense couldn’t produce 20 points. Against the Saints the offense didn’t even score ten. For most observers it has become crystal clear Nagy should not return next year. We’ll see if Bear management agrees.

The game started with the Bears electing to kick-off. The strategy is you score late in the first half and get the ball to start the second. This seemed to be prudent as the Bears defense, playing at a high level forced the Saints to turn the ball over on downs. With the score 7-3 the Bears had 1:47 and three time outs to come up with a score. I couldn’t believe my eyes when they ran David Montgomery three times, not even getting enough yardage for a chance to run a fourth down play.

The most exciting play of the first half resulted in an incomplete pass. The Bears ran a gadget play. A direct snap to Montgomery who handed off to Cordarrelle Patterson on an end around and he pitched it back to Trubisky. He threw a perfect pass to Javon Wims who was wide open in the end zone, but he dropped it. Instead of being tied 7-7, the Bears remained scoreless. The Bears then forced a fumble deep in New Orleans territory. They had a first down on the 14 yard line. In the next series, Cole Kmet was penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct and the Bears had to retreat, settling for a field goal. Not to be outdone, and with Bears already missing Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller got kicked out of the game for the same infraction.

The offense looks really good when the Bears play the worst defenses in the NFL. Against all other teams they are woefully inefficient. Trubisky went 19-29 for 199 yards. Most of his completions and 99 yards were on the Bears final series when the game had already been decided. The Bears only had 11 first downs and at one point were 1-9 on third down conversions. One problem is Trubisky throws too many passes that are short of the yardage needed for first downs. On third down and seven they throw a 5 yard pass. I can’t believe these are the calls and that Trubisky still can’t read defenses. You have to take some shots downfield to move the ball. When Trubinsky comes to the sidelines it’s up to Nagy to tell him what to do.  Mitch has probably played his last game as a Bear. On your way out leave the door open for GM Ryan Pace, who made the colossal mistake drafting him number two overall.

If you thought things couldn’t get worse than Montgomery’s 3.1 yards per carry against the Packers, you’d be wrong. Against the Saints he had 12 carries for 31 yards, about 2.5 yards per carry. I’ve always said he is an excellent out of the backfield as a receiver. However, he was only targeted once. It’s on Nagy to call more plays for him.

The defense, minus their best player Roquan Smith as well as cornerback Jaylon Johnson and nickel-back Buster Skrine, did a fine job holding the Saints to 21 points What makes this more impressive, thanks in part to a brutal offense, they were on the field for over 38 minutes.

 Next up for the Bears is to draft the best QB left when their pick comes up in the 2021 draft to build around.   

Bears Back Into Playoffs

 

January 4, 2021

1

 

The Bears were keeping the game against the Green Bay Packers close, trailing by only five points in the fourth quarter. All week long I had told people the Bears didn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell of winning this game. Despite this loss, in the battle of back-up quarterbacks, the Rams defeated the Cardinals putting the Bears in the playoffs as a number seven seed.

 

It’s easy for an offense to score 30 points against teams like Houston and Jacksonville who packed it in a while ago. The Bears were also able to put up big points against Detroit and Minnesota. The Packers are a completely different story, Once again the Bears couldn’t muster 20 points. I don’t know who’s calling the plays, but ultimately the offense is Coach Matt Nagy’s responsibility. 

 

The Bears scored a touchdown on their first series with a drive that took over 7 minutes. They would reach the Packers red zone 4 more times and would come away with only three field goals. In the middle of the third quarter, that Trubisky would connect with Darnell Mooney on a 53 yard pass play. The Bears had first and goal at the nine yard line. The Bears have trouble scoring on first and goal from the 5 yard line. First and goal from the nine is a death knell. On the ensuing three plays called, not one was a pass in the end zone. The first was a hand-off to Montgomery. A quarterback option would have made more sense.  A Bear field goal made it 21-16, Packers. The Bears faced multiple fourth down conversions throughout the game. These are not ideal situations. After converting many, It caught up to them when they inexplicably tried a pass on 4^th  and 1 at the Pacers 25 yard line that was incomplete. When asked about this play Trubisky said “the only thing we could have done in that situation, was maybe run something else.” Ya think? The Packers would take over from here with two more touchdowns.

 

Many people ask me why I don’t like David Montgomery. How does a 3.1 average yards per carry grab you? His only good games have been against bad defenses. His one long run skews his yards per carry average in those games. However, he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Trubisky yards per completions was seven. Take away Mooney’s 53 yard reception and it drops to 6.3. Extrapolating further take away the 23 yard completion to Allen Robinson and the average drops to 5.6. How do you not target Allen Robinson more? Baffling play calling is a big problem All are offensive issues that need a new coach to correct.

 

The Bears finish no better than last year at 8-8. Excluding Tampa Bay, the combined record of the teams they beat is 32-80. They face the Saints who they took to overtime before eventually losing. With Kamara questionable, some think the Bears can win this game and start a run. If everybody is heathy, in this bizarre world, maybe they beat the Packers. Not a chance. Their playoff run most likely will be four quarters.