Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Winning Ugly


September 24, 2018
Watching the early Sunday football games, I witnessed two upsets of Chicago Bears’ rivals in the NFC North Division. Archrival No. 1, the Green Bay Packers, lost to the winless Washington Redskins. The Minnesota Vikings, with their great defense, got walloped by a bad Buffalo Bills team 27-6. The Vikings were 10 1/2-point favorites. The Bears were also playing a team they should have easily beaten, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals quickly went ahead in the first quarter 14-0. Eventually with some help from the Cardinals, the Bears eked out an ugly 16-14 victory.

 The Bears’ defense won this game. This can become a recurring theme. The only glitch was Arizona easily scoring a touchdown on the Cardinals’ first possession, culminating with a 35-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver. After a Mitch Trubisky fumble, the Cardinals got their second touchdown, on a 21-yard pass. From then on the defense was outstanding, allowing the Bears to overcome a 14-point deficit. They had four consecutive turnovers in the second half that resulted in 13 points. There were two key moments provided by Khalil Mack.  With 45 seconds left in the first half, the Cardinals were in field goal range. Mack sacked quarterback Sam Bradford, forcing a punt.  Leading 14-13, the Cardinals had the ball at the Bears’ 21-yard line. They could have run the ball and kicked a field goal for a 4-point lead. Instead, Bradford went back to pass and Mack sacked him, forcing a fumble. With the addition of Mack this is the best defense in the NFL.
For the Bears to keep on winning, the defense will have to play at an extremely high level, because the offense is awful. Mitch Trubisky continues to look bad. I wasn’t expecting him to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but I expected he would improve. However, he was better at the end of last year than he is now. His accuracy is off; he can’t check out of a play recognizing a blitz. He locks in on his primary receivers, not seeing others, causing bad decisions. If you took a photograph of the best quarterbacks drafted in the last three years, he would not be in the picture.
Matt Nagy was hired as a coach who could tutor a young quarterback. Under his watch, Trubisky has regressed. Nagy seems lost in his billboard of plays. His mismanaging of the clock and dumb timeouts would make former Bears’ Coach John Fox proud. In his post game interview, he said he is still learning. Just great, a coach with on-the-job training. Finally, he says that offense will grow because for many players are learning a new system. What happened to all those great practices with Trubisky getting plenty of reps?



Thursday, September 20, 2018

The Misery in a Victory


September 20, 2018

The Bears won their first game last Monday. Is everybody happy? The Bears beat a bad Seattle Seahawks team that has limited offensive weapons and had two defensive starters sitting out with injuries. The Bears should have crushed this team, but twice let Seattle get within seven points. In what was eerily similar to the last game against the Packers, Seattle closed the gap to seven for the second time in the fourth quarter. The Bears went three and outgiving the ball back.  Thankfully, Prince Amukamara intercepted a pass and ran it back 49 yards to ice the game
  
BUT any optimism I had is fading fast.

The defense for the most part was excellent. The low point was Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson’s touchdown pass to the back of the end zone, similar to the Aaron Rodgers TD strike in the opener. Wilson was under constant pressure and was sacked six times. Khalil Mack was solidcausing a fumble. When called upon, Bryce Callahan played really well. Danny Trevathan was a solid player when he came to Chicago from Denver. Last year you could see the how much better they were as opposed to when he was out. The presence of Mack makes him even better. The Bears haven’t had a pro bowler on defense for years. This year they should have two. 

In all my years following the Bears, their calling card has always been defense. No matter how well they played, the offenses lacked a good quarterback, and you can’t win running the ball on every play. These teams never make the post-season. You can’t win if you don’t score. The only time they had an offense was is mid 1980’sThe great Walter Payton was running the ball, while Jim McMahon was passing to Dennis McKinnon and Willie Gault. That team also had one of the best defenses in history.

 After a dumb fair catch, the Bears started at the 4-yard line on their first possession. They went 96 yards for a touchdown, with a nifty 3-yard shovel pass for the score. Just like the last game, after the scripted plays Matt Nagy’s offense staggered. It didn’t help that the quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, was lousy. With the defense providing good field positionTrubisky couldn’t lead them to a score. He underthrew his receiver and was intercepted. He had a ball tipped for another one.  He should have had a third pick. While scrambling he threw into double coverage and a Seattle defender just knocked it down. He will learn to throw that ball where no one can catch it. Trubisky did throw his second touchdown on a short drive. Anthony Miller got himself wide open in the end zone for a 10-yard score. Seventeen points and multiple three-and-outs against this team is terrible.

This Bears team is being built around Trubisky. He was supposed to be taught by the coaching staff how to not look only at his primary receivers. Once in the opener and twice against Seattle, wide-open Trey Burton was screaming for a pass. Watching the film, Trubisky should learn how to get rid of the ball to avoid a sack. Throw it away! What can’t be taught is accuracy, which is supposed to be his strong suit. With the faith I have in General Manager Ryan Pace, I’m almost certain he traded up for the third best quarterback in the 2017 draft. There are going to be growing pains with Alan Thicke being replaced by Matt Nagy.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Looking Forward to the Post Season

September 14, 2018

With just over two weeks left in the season, there are many questions left. Injuries as usual have been a major story this year. A mantra in sports is if we stay healthy we will be in good shape.
 In the American league we now know who will be in the playoffs and who have had injury worries.

The Boston Red Sox – This team has the best record in baseball. There is not a weakness in its  lineup. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are MVP candidates. The biggest problem is ace starter. Chris Sale has been on the disabled list most of the second he half of the season and may not be ready to pitch in the playoffs. Even if he makes it back, you do not know if he will as good as he was prior to the injury.

The New York Yankees – In what was supposed to be a tight pennant race, Boston dominated, leaving the team with the second best record as a wild card entry. It didn’t help that major injuries sidelined Gary Sanchez early and home run champ Aaron Judge hasn’t swung a bat since late June. The bullpen is good but after you throw your best starter to get through the wild card playoff into the first round, the rest of the staff is mediocre at best. The bullpen, though, is very good.

The Cleveland Indians – In the lousiest division in baseball. The Indians have led from start to finish. However, that does not diminish how good they are. They have the best left side of the infield. Shortstop Francisco Lindor and third baseman Jose Ramirez are both near the top in all AL offensive categories. They have a good bullpen. The starting pitching has been good. Their problem is the number 2 starter Trevor Bauer has been on the disabled list for much of the second half

The Houston Astros – the defending champs are positioned to play in the World Series again. They went into a little slump when Jose Altuve was on the DL. With shortstop Alex Correa, this is best double –play combination. Their starting rotation is the best in the game, the relief is solid and they have no significant injuries.  They say it is difficult to win the World Series two years in a row, but this is my favorite.

The Oakland Athletics – The surprise team of the year. Manager Bob Melvin has done a great job getting his players believing they can win. Khris Davis leads the league with 41 home runs. The A’s rank second only to the Yankees in total home runs. However, they lack in quality pitching.

The National League picture is a little murkier, with only one clear- cut division, while the other two division winners and wild card teams are unknown.

The Atlanta Braves – This team has been a surprise. I haven’t seen them much, but here is what I know. The starting lineup includes probable rookie of the year Renaldo Acuno Jr. who leads the team in home runs. One of the best first basemen Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis add more punch to the lineup. Their young pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA. A fielding percentage of .986 really helps a young pitching staff.

The Colorado Rockies - The Rockies always hit. They have scored 698 runs in the high altitude of Colorado’s Coors Field. Trevor Story and MVP candidate Nolan Aranado have combined for 67 home runs. On the other hand, pitching is very difficult at Coors Field.  A couple of starters have good ERAs but the bullpen is a mess. The Rockies team ERA is 4.79 and they have a slim lead on the Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Generally not known for their hitting, the Dodgers have scored 699 runs, one more than the Rockies.  Out of Nowhere, Max Muncy and a rejuvenated Matt Kemp have been leading this team. The addition of Manny Machado makes this a better team than the one in last year’s World Series. As usual, the Dodgers have great pitching. Clayton Kershaw leads the pitching staff with a league- best 3.49 ERA. I think they will overtake the Rockies and go deep in the playoffs.

The Chicago Cubs - Beset by injuries, I still believe they will win this division.  Both of their closers are most likely lost for the year but someone will step up. Jason Hayward is having his best year with the Cubs and left- handed hitter Kyle Schwarber is also banged up.  On the brighter side, Kris Bryant is back. They also have MVP candidate Javier Baez. Although the bats sometimes go cold, the best starting pitching in the National League can win games.

The Milwaukee Brewers- After previously falling by the wayside, the Brewers have the pressure on the Cubs. I don’t think they win enough to catch the Cubs.  They should be good enough a wild card they may get in. if so they will play the Cubs in the first round. This Brewers team is much better than last year due to some great moves acquiring Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich What they lack is starting pitching. However, they get a lead after 6 innings the bullpen can shut you down. I’ve said it before, Josh Hader is the best reliever in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals would have to have a lot of good things happen to be a wild card team. I doubt they’ll force me to talk about it in the next post regarding baseball.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Heart Breaker



September 10, 2018

Even though I didn’t expect the Bears to beat the Packers, this defeat is hard to swallow. The Bears coughed up a twenty point lead in less than two quarters. Granted, the Packers have the best quarterback, in Aaron Rodgers, but he was not the sole reason the Bears lost, he had some help.

Things started out looking good. The offense looked crisp with different formations and movement, things not usually associated with a Bears offenses. Mitch Trubisky looked real good leading them 86 yards to a touchdown and a field goal to build an early ten point lead. From then on the offense was virtually non-existent.

The defense was very good. Pressure and a sack of Rodgers forced him to leave the field..His replacement, DeShone Kizer led the Packers into field goal range.  On a third down he went back to pass. The Bears best player, Khalil Mack, strip sacked Kizer to snuff out that drive. Of course the Bears offense stalled and they gave the ball right back to the Packers .Kizer had a pass tipped that ended up in Mack’s hands and he scored a touchdown. Bears 17, Packers 0.

At the start of the third quarter the Bears extended their lead to twenty. Enter Aaron Rodgers. He was getting the ball out lightning fast, to avoid the pass rush. His first drive ended with a field goal. The Bears great offensive mind, coach Matt Nagy, can't find the right plays and the Bears go three and out. The Packers scored  a quick touchdown. and you could feel the momentum turning. Even with his billboard of plays the Bears once again go three and out. In my last post, I pointed out there is a big difference between having plays and calling the right ones. The defense gasping for air looks like they are doing a better job until, on second down and 2 from the Bears 39 yard line, Rodgers throws a perfect pass to the far right hand corner of the end zone.  A covered Geronimo Allison catches this for a touchdown. No one is better at this type of pass than Rodgers. The lead is down to three.

Nagy finally wakes up. With Trubisky’s efficiency and passing rating falling, he decides to run the ball. This will eat some time off the clock. The danger is if you leave some time left, Rodgers doesn’t need much to score. The run is working and the Packers are using up all their timeouts. The Bears have third down and need only two yards for a first down. Then just like the previous coaches Nagy gets a brain camp. The Bears were running the ball effectively to this point. The offensive guru calls a pass play. This is wrong on all counts. The pass is incomplete and the clock stops. Brain cramp number two., Nagy calls for a field goal with over two minutes to go. It was at this point I knew the Bears were going to lose. If they run the ball and get a first down they probably win the game. If the Bears don’t make a first down, you try again on fourth down This takes time off the clock. If for some reason you can't 2 yards in two plays, the Packers start way back in their end.

Instead of starting deep in their territory, the kick-off goes into the end zone giving the Packers get the ball at their own 25 yard line. Needing a touchdown, the Packers pass to Randall Cobb over the middle. With no Bear in sight, he scores a 75 yard touchdown. Packers 24, Bears 23. The Bears defense was so inept on the last Packer possession, they got the ball back with over two minutes left on the clock. They had two time outs and the two minute warning break. Needing only a field goal, they move to their own forty yard line. There was still about 1.5 minutes left. Enough time for an unexpected run to get them closer..Nagy calls on his quarterback to  pass. Trubisky misses three times (mostly sideline passes) with plenty of time to work the middle of the field. Trubisky fumbles on fourth down, game over.. 

I know it’s only one game but I can’t believe with all the good practices and Trubisky getting plenty of reps, that they could lose. Maybe if they had some game experience they could have found some things to work on, although I don’t how you work on bad snaps. After the game Nagy’s every answer was praising Aaron Rodgers, without mentioning he may have screwed up. He also said they could have used more game reps. For his poor play calling the Packers should have given Nagy a game ball.


Thursday, September 6, 2018

Mack Attack


September 3, 2018

The Chicago Cubs have the best record in the National League and are the favorites to make it to the World Series. The Chicago White Sox are playing really good baseball; the rebuild is starting to take shape. However, the most exciting thing in Chicago sports is the Bears trade for Khalil Mack
.
This is the most impressive move in Ryan Pace tenure as the Bears General Manager.  Mack is the game changing force the Bears have been looking for. They have filled their biggest need on defense. The team that ranked tenth on defense could be one of the five best.  A defense that would have kept the Bears competitive can now win games.

Teams have to plan specifically on stopping Mack from wreaking havoc. Most times they are not successful. His specialty is quarterback sacks, forty over the past four seasons. In recent years opposing quarterbacks sat back in the pocket with no pressure. Those days are over.
Another plus is Mack will make others better. Pressure on quarterbacks makes the secondary’s jobs easier. If you double team Mack, Akiem Hicks or Eddie Goldman can get to the quarterback. If you flush the quarterback out of the pocket, the linebackers can make the plays. This makes first round pick Roquan Smith a good choice.

I hate that Bear fans have been told to temper their expectations. However, you don’t make this move without having the playoffs as an immediate goal.  I still don’t know what to expect from Mitch Trubisky and the new offense. If it’s working they may win in the post season. I’m upping my earlier prediction from eight victories to nine. If the offense is as good as the team says maybe they can go 10-6 which should put them in the playoffs. On the other hand, if they have the injuries like the last couple of years, all bets are off.